US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The larger 0.4% rise in consumer prices last month was mainly due to higher gasoline prices, with little sign of the September tariffs pushing up prices of consumer goods. If anything, underlying... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Supply of starter homes no better in rental market Households frustrated by the lack of affordable single-family homes for sale will find conditions are no better in the rental market, where the number of homes available for under $1,250 a month has... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Downside risks starting to fade We still expect GDP growth to slow a little further in the fourth quarter, but the recent stabilisation in the activity surveys, along with the growing prospect of a meaningful trade truce with China... 8th November 2019 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) Despite stable interest rates, demand for home purchase mortgages dropped back in October, and had reached a two-month low by the end of the month. Concerns around the economic outlook, a shortage of... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Tight markets support rental growth The 30-year mortgage rate increased to an eight-week high in October, which helps explain why mortgage applications for home purchase have been trending down since mid-September. A lack of inventory... 5th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US equities appear better value than corporate bonds One reason to think that US equities will outperform US corporate bonds over the next couple of years is a larger-than-average wedge between their valuations. 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit to $52.5bn in September, from $55.0bn, confirms that net trade was broadly neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, although we expect it to become a renewed drag in... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q4) The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey points to a continued drop off in demand for commercial and industrial loans, consistent with business equipment investment contracting again in the fourth... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s work is not done yet Although the clear message from the Fed this week was that they do not intend to ease policy further, we expect a continued slowdown in economic growth and persistently below target inflation will... 1st November 2019 · 6 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The muted rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.3 in October, which left it only slightly higher that September’s decade low of 47.8, takes some of the shine off the better-than-expected... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The solid 128,000 gain in non-farm payrolls was more impressive than it looked given it was depressed by the GM strike and a census-related drop in Federal employment. Together with upward revisions... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Inventory of cheaper homes has halved since 2012 The number of vacant single-family homes for sale has dropped 25% since the start of 2012. But the situation is far worse at the cheaper end of the market, where the inventory of homes priced under... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed cuts rates, but draws line under further loosening The Fed cut interest rates for a third time as expected today, to between 1.5% and 1.75%, but changes in the statement suggest it is trying to dissuade the markets from pricing in any further... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks surged last week owing to a jump in net imports. Over the coming months, we expect a slowdown in the US economy to lead to further builds in inventories. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) The 1.9% annualised increase in third-quarter GDP, down only marginally from the 2.0% gain in the second, was a little stronger than we had expected. But it still pushed the economy’s annual growth... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The rise in month-on-month house price growth in August largely reflects issues with the seasonal-adjustment of the Case-Shiller index, rather than a sign that growth is once again accelerating... 29th October 2019 · 2 mins read
