US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) & GDP (Q3, 2nd Estimate) The rise in durable goods orders last month was driven by a surge in orders for underlying capital goods, suggesting that business equipment investment is holding up better than anticipated. Together... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Strength of payrolls at odds with broader evidence We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a decent 170,000 in November, flattered by the return of striking GM workers. We wouldn’t take too much comfort from that, however, because recent gains look... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Sep./Oct) Both the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported a rise in annual house price growth in September, as low mortgage interest rates and tight existing home inventory supported values. But inventory is healthier... 26th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates to stay close to 4% over next two years We now expect mortgage interest rates to stay close to their current level over the next couple of years. That will give some support to housing demand but, as was the case this year, offsetting... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Housing rebound a sign of things to come The key housing releases this week provided further evidence that the big decline in mortgage rates is feeding through to a rebound in residential investment. That won’t be enough to prevent the... 22nd November 2019 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) Existing home sales saw a marginal rise in October, but the gain wasn’t enough to reverse September’s dip and sales are still below their level in 2017. With the inventory of homes for sale at 18... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The rally in US lumber prices is not over yet The price of lumber has surged in recent months. We think that prices will continue to rise in 2020 primarily on the back of ongoing strength in US housing starts and falling lumber supply from Canada... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy nearing a turning point The latest activity data suggest that economic growth will slow to just 1.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 1.9% in the third, but there are growing hopes that may prove to be the nadir. Much... 20th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose, in large part due to a significant outflow from the strategic reserve. That said, we expect stocks to remain relatively high as the economy slows and demand falters. 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Nov.) The risk of a recession occurring within the next year appears to have faded – with the yield curve un-inverting, financial conditions loosening and the incoming economic data still comfortably above... 20th November 2019 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) A steady rise in new home sales since the start of the year helped single-family building permits reach a 12-year high in October. A gradual move toward constructing starter homes, which are in short... 19th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed now on prolonged hold We expect economic growth to slow over the coming quarters, but the fading downside risks from the global backdrop and trade policy, together with new, less dovish language from the Fed means we are... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.8% m/m plunge in industrial production last month was almost entirely due to the strike at GM and a weather-related fall in utilities output. With the strike now over, and much of the country... 15th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in October illustrates that while consumer spending growth is slowing gradually, it remains a relative bright spot. We expect real consumption growth to slow to... 15th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose, in part owing to higher domestic production but there was also a significant outflow from the strategic reserve. We think that above-trend US stocks will remain a... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Builders begin slow move back to starter homes Tight supply of affordable homes, and a relatively large increase in their price, are encouraging builders back to the starter home sector. But a slowing economy and tighter credit conditions rule out... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
