US Economics Update Fed begins prolonged hold The Fed called time on its easing cycle today by leaving the fed funds target range unchanged at 1.50%-1.75% and striking a more upbeat tone in the policy statement. With economic growth stabilising... 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose last week, while gasoline inventories surged on the back of a drop in demand. We expect inventories to rise further in the first quarter, as economic growth remains... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) A rise in energy prices pushed headline CPI inflation up to a one-year high last month, but the stability of core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures remain subdued. In that environment... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Low mortgage rates here to stay A narrowing in the spread against the 10-year Treasury yield kept the 30-year mortgage rate close to 4% even as yields reached a three-month high in early November. Mortgage rates are likely to stay... 9th December 2019 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on hold for a lot longer than just next week The incoming data this week were, on balance, positive and certainly wouldn’t prompt the sort of “material reassessment” of the outlook that Fed officials have said would be necessary to cut interest... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The much stronger than expected 266,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November was flattered by the return of 41,000 striking GM workers but, even allowing for that, it suggests labour market... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, to a 16-month low in October, was distorted by a GM-strike related fall in auto imports and a big drop back in consumer goods imports, as the stockpiling... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell last week on the back of increased refinery throughput. However, with stocks well above their historical average, and with the US economy set to slow, this latest report doesn’t... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Productivity growth may still be accelerating Recent payroll employment growth is likely to be revised down in the annual revision early next year, which is unquestionably a negative. But the flip-side is that productivity growth must have been... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Rates on hold for the next few years The Fed’s less dovish language, against a backdrop of fading downside risks, is why we think the Fed is now done cutting interest rates. We anticipate rates will remain at their current level of 1.50%... 4th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) Concerns that a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield would herald a rise in mortgage rates look to have persuaded some buyers to bring forward a home purchase application, with demand rising to a five... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Refinancing demand set for another strong year With mortgage rates set to remain close to their current low level over the next couple of years, refinancing activity will be strong in 2020. Tighter credit conditions will constrain demand to some... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.1 in November, from 48.3, left it close to the decade-low reached in September. Despite the improvement some of the alternative manufacturing... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Phase one trade deal would do little for global growth We doubt that recent developments in Hong Kong will prevent the US and China reaching a “phase one” trade deal in the coming weeks. But it would do little to boost global growth. And given the... 2nd December 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose last week, largely on the back of an outflow from the government’s strategic reserve. Over the coming months, we expect slowing economic growth and faltering crude... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly External drag starting to fade We still expect GDP growth to slow a little further over the coming months, but the latest data suggest that the slowdown in the fourth quarter won’t be quite as bad as we had previously feared. 27th November 2019 · 8 mins read
