US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) The rise in new home sales in November came from a downwardly revised October reading but, looking through the volatility, sales have had a good year. Low mortgage rates, an increase in the supply of... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Nov.) The unexpected 2.0% m/m decline in November’s durable goods orders was largely due to a massive slump in defence aircraft, alongside a small dip in commercial aircraft orders. Nevertheless, excluding... 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US commercial crude stocks to taper off in 2020 US commercial crude stocks remained high in 2019 owing principally to strong domestic production and increased Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases. Looking ahead, we think that a further rise... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Low mortgage rates will give housing starts a boost Mortgage interest rates have been close to 4% since October, and we expect they will stay at that level over the next couple of years. However, the support that will give to housing demand will be... 20th December 2019 · 16 mins read
US Economics Weekly 2020: how could it all go wrong? As the boost from this year’s loosening in financial conditions feeds through, we expect GDP growth to rebound more sharply than most others anticipate in the second half of 2020. But events this week... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) The inventory of existing homes for sale dropped to a record low in November, which helps explain why home sales declined. We doubt that supply picture will improve over the next year and, coupled... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Looser financial conditions to drive 2020 recovery GDP growth appears to have slowed slightly, to between 1.5% and 2.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, but the more stable global backdrop and the lagged impact of this year’s loosening in financial... 19th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Energy Update US gasoline demand to fall even with CAFE changes If enacted, we estimate that the Trump Administration’s reported proposals for altering fuel efficiency standards in automobiles will mean that US gasoline consumption will be around 0.3m bpd higher... 18th December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The 1.1% surge in manufacturing output last month reflected both a rebound in autos output following the end of the GM strike and a healthy gain in underlying production. Boeing’s decision to halt... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family building permits increased for the seventh month in a row in November. And, with homebuilder confidence hitting a 20-year high in December, starts are set for another year of steady... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Far-fetched promises on US agricultural goods We don’t think that China will import the $40bn of agricultural goods that it has reportedly pledged to buy from the US. As such, the impact on prices should be fairly minimal. 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Phase One agreement not a big deal for the economy The “Phase One” trade deal apparently agreed with China is a small positive for the outlook to the extent that it removes the threat of further tariffs. But we doubt the rollback of existing tariffs... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
US Housing Market Focus The QM patch needs to be replaced, but with what? Against the CFPB’s expectations, use of the qualified mortgage patch has not declined since it was introduced in 2013. If it is not replaced before it expires in early 2021, we therefore anticipate... 13th December 2019 · 17 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade “deal” leaves plenty of unknowns The apparent agreement between the US and China to avoid the December increase in tariffs and begin a phased rollback of existing tariffs, together with the more upbeat tone from the Fed, all but... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The disappointing 0.2% m/m rise in retail sales in November suggests that real consumption growth was a little weaker in the fourth quarter than the 2.0% annualised reading we had pencilled in, but... 13th December 2019 · 2 mins read
