US Economics Focus The impact of a second Trump term on the economy If President Donald Trump were to win a second term, we’d expect both fiscal and monetary policy to remain loose, amid a push to install a more dovish Fed Chair in 2022. There would also be an upside... 23rd January 2020 · 21 mins read
Asset Allocation Update It could soon be time to downsize We don’t expect the recent marked outperformance of US mega-cap equities to continue during the rest of this year and suspect that it will unwind if a Democrat wins the race to the White House. 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Constraints on homebuilding beginning to ease There are encouraging signs that the cost and availability of materials, lots and labour are all starting to improve. Coupled with strong new home demand, and a shift toward the construction of... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / Existing Home Sales (Nov./Dec.) The inventory of existing homes dropped to another record low in December, which means the solid rise in sales seen over the month is unlikely to be the start of an upward trend. Even with market... 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s recent asset purchases and repo auctions have reversed more than half of the earlier quantitative tightening. Even so, it is the Fed’s interest rate cuts that have been the far more... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Wuhan coronavirus spreads to US The new Wuhan coronavirus has apparently already spread to the US – with a first case reported in Washington State – but we don't expect it to cause the sort of panic that hit travel and retail sales... 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to sit on its hands in 2020 Signs of improvement in the activity data and the trade ceasefire with China should reassure Fed officials that they have now done enough to support the economy. We expect the fed funds target range... 22nd January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2020 A lack of homes for sale means forecasters agree that existing home sales will just tread water over 2020. But we are more optimistic than others on the outlook for new home sales and single-family... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to accelerate in 2020 The Fed’s interest rate cuts, a truce in the trade war, and a more positive global backdrop have all set the stage for an acceleration in economic growth this year. We calculate that GDP growth was a... 21st January 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade deal adds to hopes of a more upbeat 2020 The main economic impact of the signing of the Phase One trade deal this week was to further reduce the downside risks to the outlook. But the details of the deal also suggest some upside risk to... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.3% fall in industrial production in December was entirely due to a weather-related slump in utilities output. The latest surveys suggest that the tentative recovery in manufacturing output is a... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) The surge in housing starts in December in part reflects a jump in the volatile multifamily sector and favourable weather conditions. But single-family starts are well-placed for another strong year... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Retail sales increased by a moderate 0.3% m/m in December, as a price-related 2.8% m/m surge in the value of gasoline station sales helped to offset a 1.3% m/m drop back in motor vehicle sales... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Phase One deal reduces downside risks The Phase One trade agreement signed today removes the downside risk of a never-ending escalation of tariffs imposed by the US and China on each other’s imports, but the modest scale of the roll-back... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell, mainly because of a drop in net imports. We expect crude inventories to decline further through the course of the year as US exports creep higher and the economy... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Single-family housing starts set for another strong year The 30-year mortgage rate ended 2019 at close to 4%, and it is set to stay at around that level over the next or so. But tighter credit conditions will offset some of the benefit of lower rates on... 14th January 2020 · 8 mins read
