US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (June 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was little changed in June, leaving it consistent at face value with a small fall in GDP. While the ISM has not been a good leading indicator of GDP growth in recent years... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Investors appear unfazed by odds favouring Trump Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar treads water ahead of US non-farm payrolls The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Biden debate woes leave Trump ahead Joe Biden’s faltering debate performance leaves Donald Trump as the narrow favourite to win this November’s presidential election. There isn’t an alternative Democratic candidate who would fare any... 28th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Economics, not the White House, the key to US energy The Dallas Fed survey of oil and gas firms released this week revealed deep dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Donald Trump has made it clear he would provide greater support for the... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (May) The core PCE deflator increased by only 0.08% m/m in May and, even allowing for some modest upward revisions to the gains in earlier months, that was enough to pull the annual core inflation rate down... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Key highlights from June This Monthly looks at some of the key climate-related developments in June, including the narrowing wedge between the EU and UK carbon prices, and what Nobel Prize-winning climate scientist Claudia... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A tale of two tech bubbles & why we doubt this one will pop soon The last US tech bubble inflated in a different way to this one. A comparison of the two leads us to conclude that this bubble will continue to inflate, despite the recent wobble in Nvidia’s share... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand to moderate We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in June. The unemployment rate probably edged back down to 3.9%, while we expect a renewed slowdown in wage growth. 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2024) The small fall in core orders and larger fall in underlying capital goods shipments leaves prospects for second quarter business equipment investment weaker than we had expected. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling... 27th June 2024 · 46 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (May 2024) The 11.3% m/m decline in new home sales in May will steal all the headlines, but it largely reflected a significant upward revision to the April sales number, leaving us somewhat confused at the... 26th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The end of the beginning for the AI bubble? Nvidia has entered correction territory, but we doubt this will mark the beginning of the end of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI). Instead, this might usher in a new phase of a bubble we... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Consumers beginning to feel the pinch We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but... 25th June 2024 · 16 mins read
