US Economics Update Taking stock of Sanders’ surge The surge in Bernie Sanders’ perceived chances of the winning the Democratic nomination could yet weigh on the stock market if he continues to build momentum in upcoming primaries. Even so, our... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose again last week in line with the seasonal norm. While small falls in US product stocks suggest demand is holding up, it would take a surge in US consumption to even go some of the... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The trade deficit widened to $48.9bn in December, from $43.7bn, as imports rebounded by 2.7% m/m, outpacing a 0.8% m/m gain in exports. The rebound in imports partly reflected the unwinding of... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A rush to safe-haven assets helped drive the 30-year mortgage rate to a three-year low by the end of January. That triggered a surge in mortgage applications for refinance, and a decent rise in home... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Encouraging rise in vacant homes being repaired A rise in the number of vacant homes being repaired is an indication that some owners of empty properties are planning to put them up for sale. That may provide some relief to a tight housing market... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update All-property total returns set to improve in 2020 Having softened in each of the last four years, we expect US commercial property total returns to strengthen again in 2020, reaching close to 7%. Those returns will reflect a roughly 3% uplift in... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stretched valuations to keep lid on house price growth While not at dangerous levels, the house price-to-earnings ratio does suggest home valuations are stretched. With mortgage interest rates unlikely to fall much further, and limited prospect for a... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation remains stubbornly below target The 2.1% annualised increase in fourth-quarter GDP wasn’t quite as strong as the headline figures suggested but, stepping back, the economy still expanded by a respectable 2.3% last year. The... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth accelerating, but revisions a spoiler Our model suggests that non-farm payroll growth will accelerate to 185,000 in January, from 145,000. The overall tone of the report will not be as positive, however, with the annual benchmark... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) The 2.1% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was not quite as solid as it looked, with consumption growth slowing and business investment contracting for a third consecutive quarter. Nevertheless... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose last week owing in large part to lower refinery activity. Crude stocks may remain high for some time in light of high gasoline inventories, but we expect them to ease back later... 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) Low mortgage interest rates and tight supply helped annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure increase for the second month in a row in November. But stretched valuations, and tightening... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The December durable goods data suggest that business equipment investment fell again in the fourth quarter. But the recent improvement in the survey evidence suggests it should soon start to rebound... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Six key calls for US commercial property We are launching our new subscription service on US commercial real estate by outlining six key calls that we believe will shape the sector’s story in the coming years. The macroeconomic environment... 28th January 2020 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) New home sales ended 2019 on a weak note, declining in each of the final three months of the year. But a high traffic of prospective buyers in January points to a swift recovery in sales the early... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Inventory adjustment almost over A sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation weighed heavily on GDP growth in the second half of 2019 but, with that adjustment now largely over, the turning inventory cycle looks set to... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
