US Chart Pack Near-term shocks won’t knock economy off course Although the Boeing shutdown and the coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to the economy in the first quarter, there are mounting signs that underlying momentum in the economy is strengthening. We... 19th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update US dollar likely to stay strong even if virus risk fades We think that the greenback will remain strong this year, even if some of its recent strength may unwind. 17th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What’s debt got to do with it? The worst commercial real estate busts have tended to follow a ramping-up in lending activity, driven by the availability of debt rising and its cost falling. However, regularly updated Fed lending... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump reshaping the Fed from the outside Judy Shelton’s rocky Senate nomination hearing this week means that President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the Fed from the outside could yet fail at the first hurdle. But the dovish Christopher... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan.) The unexpected weakness in underlying retail sales in January suggests that consumer spending is still struggling for momentum but, with jobs growth solid and consumer confidence resilient, we doubt... 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the plunge in job openings a concern? The sharp fall in job openings over the past year appears to be a lagged response to the earlier slowdown in hiring intentions rather than a sign that labour market conditions are about to deteriorate... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The continued stability of core CPI inflation in January supports our view that the Fed will not be raising interest rates again for the foreseeable future. 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Could the coronavirus derail the housing market? The coronavirus is contained in the US, and with Chinese construction imports and non-resident buyers too small to have a meaningful impact, the housing market has so far escaped the virus largely... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Tech sector to drive San Francisco office rental growth Rapid employment growth in the technology and information industries has been behind a surge in demand for office space in San Francisco. Even if this growth were to slow somewhat, we expect... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rental vacancy rates set for a small rise in 2020 A decline in apartment completions helped keep rental vacancy rates low over the latter part of 2019. But strong multifamily starts over the past couple of years suggest completions will pick-up in... 11th February 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democratic nomination race still wide open When the results of the Iowa caucuses were eventually released they only increased the uncertainty over who will become the Democratic nominee. With his approval rating hitting its highest level in... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 225,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January suggests that employment benefitted from the unseasonably mild weather (it was the fifth warmest January on record), with the construction sector... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Sanders’ surge could be bad news for US equities Bernie Sanders is still a long way from the White House, but several of his policies look very negative for US equities. If his support continues to climb that could start to weigh on the US stock... 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Commercial property to outperform bonds and equities Over the next two years we expect US property to produce total returns of over 7.5% p.a. This would be stronger than any of the last three years and, more importantly, would be a better outturn than... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Will the new coronavirus affect the US economy? With flights to and from China halted and the handful of domestic cases isolated, the risk of a coronavirus epidemic developing in the US – and the potentially devastating economic disruption that... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How long can the current expansion continue? The Great Moderation in the volatility of GDP growth and price inflation, which began in the 1980s, came to an abrupt end with the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 but, a decade later, what... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
