US Economics Weekly Grim week raises pressure on the Fed The threat of a coronavirus outbreak in the US is a significant downside risk to the economic outlook. The Fed can do nothing to halt the spread of the virus, but a further tightening of financial... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) Durable goods orders were held down last month by a plunge in volatile defence orders, but the surge in underlying capital goods orders and shipments suggests business equipment investment growth is... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US Recession Watch (Feb.) The recent re-inversion of the Treasury yield curve and the sharp sell-off in equities, due to growing fears that the new coronavirus will develop into a full-blown pandemic, have reignited fears that... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) Warm weather and a healthy inventory helped new homes make a strong start to the year. A drop in home purchase mortgage applications during February means some of that surge will be reversed over the... 26th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial returns have peaked, but will stay strong We think that 2020 will be the eleventh consecutive year of double-digit total returns for industrial property. However, we also think it will be the last in this cycle, as slower yield falls from... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates unlikely to hit record lows A flight to safety and belief that the Fed will cut rates have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows. But we doubt the 30-year mortgage rate will follow suit. Stretched lender capacity and... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How low could the unemployment rate go? If the current robust trend in employment growth continues, the unemployment rate could eventually fall to its lowest level since the early 1950s. But even if it does, there are several reasons to... 25th February 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Dec.) Low mortgage rates and tight inventory have supported house prices in recent months, with Case-Shiller reporting a jump in annual growth to 3.8% in December, a 10-month high. But looking ahead... 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weak PMIs highlight risk of Q1 wobble While the incoming data have remained mostly positive, the plunge in the Markit composite PMI in February suggests that economic growth could be set for a further slowdown in the first quarter, as the... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth coming off the boil in all sectors Economic indicators have improved recently, but remain at low levels, meaning that the recovery in GDP growth is likely to be gradual. As a result, occupier demand is likely to continue to slow... 21st February 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Markit PMIs (Feb.) The big fall in the Markit composite PMI, to the lowest level since the series began in late-2009, was driven by a plunge in the services index and will inevitably raise fears about the underlying... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) Given the plunge in the pending home sales index in December, the 1.3% m/m drop in existing home sales in January was smaller than we had expected. But that implies sales will see a more substantial... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Assessing the risks to our fed funds forecast In contrast to market expectations, we are still sceptical that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, but we agree with Treasury investors that rates are more likely to fall than rise over the... 19th February 2020 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) The fifth warmest January on record meant housing starts only reversed some of their December surge, with single-family starts remaining above 1 million annualised. That impact will unwind over the... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
