US Economics Update Fed will lower rates to near-zero again Based on the continuing slump in stock markets and the global spread of the coronavirus, we agree with the view in markets that the Fed will cut interest rates to near-zero within the next couple of... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Plunge in oil price another short-term headwind The plunge in global oil prices should be close to neutral for the US, but we suspect it will still knock a few tenths off annualised GDP growth in the second quarter, as the big hit to mining... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy to take a hit despite Fed’s intervention The Fed’s emergency rate cut this week made it clear that officials are taking the economic risks posed by the coronavirus outbreak seriously. But with the number of new cases rising sharply, we don’t... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 273,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February confirms that the US economy was in very good shape before the coronavirus hit. Nevertheless, with the 10-year Treasury yield slumping to a new record... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations steady in Q4, but improving sharply in Q1 Property valuations generally improved a touch in Q4 on the back of a nearly 50bps fall in equity earnings yields as equity prices rose. This was the fourth consecutive quarter in which valuations had... 5th March 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update The economic impact of a pandemic Our current working assumption is still that the number of coronavirus cases in the US is restricted to the low tens of thousands which, in a country of more than 325 million, would represent an... 5th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Lowering our US Treasury yield forecast Given the rapid spread of the coronavirus and the Fed’s emergency rate cut, we are revising down our end-2020 forecast for the US 10-year Treasury yield from 2% to 1.25%. 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks continued to edge higher this week as a rise in domestic crude output and lower refinery activity offset a fall in net imports. Product demand remains healthy for now, but if COVID-19... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Biden’s comeback a mixed blessing for US equities In an otherwise gloomy week for US equities, the resurgence of Joe Biden in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination provides, at least at face value, one piece of good news for them. But... 4th March 2020 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) Concerns over the coronavirus have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows, which helped push mortgage rates to a seven-year low last week. That gave a substantial boost to refinancing... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Biden the front runner again Joe Biden’s comeback to win most of the Super Tuesday states means he is now the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and his campaign could gather further momentum in the coming days if Mike... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to follow up emergency cut with more action In a dramatic turnaround from last week, when even the most dovish of Fed officials didn’t appear to support any additional policy loosening, the Fed announced an emergency inter-meeting 50bp rate cut... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rapid refinancing cuts the cash-out share A sharp reduction in mortgage interest rates over 2019 increased the benefit of refinancing for recent borrowers, and as a result the median age of refinanced mortgages dropped to just two years in... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Spread of virus in US will inevitably hit GDP growth It has become clear over the past couple of days that the global spread of the coronavirus cannot be contained. The spike in reported cases within the US suggests that we are in the early stages of a... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.1 in February, from 50.9, leaves the index still above the levels seen over the second half of last year. Nevertheless, the survey clearly doesn’t... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Could South Korean inflows be set for a resurgence? Last year saw a fall in foreign investment into US commercial property, but South Korean inflows bucked the trend. This year could see a similar level of activity from Korean investors, but given... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
