US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) The rise in single-family housing starts in February pre-dates the outbreak of the coronavirus, and the outlook for starts has worsened considerably over the next few months. It will take time for the... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update GDP to plunge in Q2, but hit can still be contained The rapid escalation of measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak suggests that the economic damage will be even larger than we anticipated only a few days ago, and we are now pencilling in a 10%... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Forecasting US Commercial Property This Focus is a reference guide for clients of our new US Commercial Property service. It outlines the key pillars of our forecasting approach, updating previous methodological work from our... 17th March 2020 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will Fed action bring down mortgage rates? The Fed promise to buy at least $200bn of MBS will support liquidity in the market and put some downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. But mortgage rates are also being pushed higher by lender... 17th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Feb.) The February retail sales data provide further evidence that the economy was in reasonable shape before the coronavirus struck, but that won't prevent spending from falling sharply over the next few... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed unleashes full crisis playbook The Fed’s decision to slash interest rates to near-zero won’t stop the economy falling into a recession, but the package of liquidity-boosting measures will help prevent credit markets seizing up... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Feb.) The sum of outstanding commercial bank lending secured against real estate climbed to a new high in February. But with demand for new loans set to soften over the coming months as transactions... 13th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Deteriorating outlook prompts bigger policy response The shift to more aggressive containment measures this week has prompted us to lower our forecast for GDP growth this year to just 0.6%. In response, we expect at least a 50bp rate cut by the Fed next... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update More aggressive containment measures to hit growth The direct economic impact of President Donald Trump’s European travel ban will be limited, but we now anticipate more aggressive measures to contain the pandemic over the next few days – with... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Buyer traffic will give first clue on COVID-19 impact Any disruption the coronavirus has on housing market activity won’t be evident in the home sales data until late April at the earliest. But other metrics can give an earlier indication of the... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What could further policy support mean for real estate? The additional cuts in the Fed Funds rate that we expect to see in the next couple of months, as well as the government’s likely fiscal support, will help shore up investor confidence. Despite a... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to lower rates to near-zero We expect the Fed to cut interest rates by an additional 50bp at the scheduled FOMC meeting next week, with a final 50bp cut at the April meeting taking the fed funds rate back to its crisis-era level... 11th March 2020 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The drop back in CPI inflation to 2.3% in February, from 2.5%, is a sign of things to come, with the plunge in crude oil prices likely to drag headline CPI inflation below 1.0% soon. With underlying... 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Coronavirus outbreak to prompt fiscal response It looks increasingly likely that the escalating coronavirus outbreak will be met with a larger fiscal response, which should help to offset some of the economic damage. 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Coronavirus to weigh on housing market activity With growing evidence that the coronavirus is turning into a pandemic, a hit to housing market activity is inevitable. No hard numbers have been released yet, but home sales are vulnerable to any... 10th March 2020 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update No need to panic about surge in US HY credit spread Although the US high-yield credit spread soared on Monday to its highest level in nearly four years, we don’t think that the US economy is bound to plunge into another deep recession. 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
