Europe Commercial Property Update Property is the victim not the villain this time Property has generally been at the centre of the most severe economic downturns in recent decades. But this time it is different. Although we think the commercial market is likely to experience a... 26th March 2020 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Millions of job losses coming The March employment report is more or less irrelevant at this stage because we already know that millions of workers have been laid off since the survey was conducted earlier this month. For what it... 26th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Fiscal package will prevent record high delinquencies A surge in the unemployment rate to 12% in the second quarter will put upward pressure on the mortgage delinquency rate, but an additional $600 week in unemployment insurance should keep the rate... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The rise in durable goods orders in February reflected a surge in transport orders, with underlying capital goods orders and shipments falling back. That suggests business equipment investment was on... 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update New macro forecasts – Q2 GDP to fall at 40% pace With the number of COVID-19 cases in the US skyrocketing and a rising share of the population under lockdown, we need to revise our macro forecasts quite significantly: We now expect second-quarter... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Congress steps up to the plate The $2trn stimulus package agreed by Congress will include a permanent fiscal expansion worth up to 5% of GDP and, in conjunction with the new lending facilities announced by the Fed, could channel up... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) New home sales edged back from a 13-year high in February, but are now set for a sharp downturn as the coronavirus shuts down many parts of the home buying process. However, the high level of sales at... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to remain strong until pandemic peaks While we think that most currencies will eventually regain much of the ground that they have recently lost to the US dollar, we don’t expect that process to start until the pandemic has clearly passed... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed turns the easing up to 11 This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the Fed’s policy statement on 23rd March. The Fed’s expansion of its open-ended QE, together with new measures to lend... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy already shedding millions of jobs Normally it takes months before economists are sure that the economy has fallen into a recession, but the scale of the declines in the range of daily indicators we’re tracking mean it’s all but... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) Existing home sales saw a strong gain of 6.5% m/m in February, but with the whole of California being locked down the risks are building to our initial view that sales will see a 35% drop in the... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Republican stimulus bill only a first step The Republican senators’ fiscal proposals would provide an immediate stimulus worth more than 2% of GDP and help to offset some of the damage to the economy from the coronavirus outbreak. That said... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal support needed, but Fed still has more to do The Fed’s revival of financial crisis-era programs and a huge ramp-up in the pace of its open-ended Treasury purchases in recent days could help to stem some of the bleeding in financial markets. But... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Home sales to fall by 35% Increasingly restrictive measures on people’s movement, and an imminent surge in unemployment, means we expect total home sales will drop by around 35% in the second quarter compared to the end of... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Coronavirus chaos moving from markets to economy The past couple of weeks have been dominated by the financial market impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with equity markets continuing to plummet, the dollar surging and signs of strain persisting in... 19th March 2020 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How far could transactions fall? Our base case points to investment activity falling by 45% this year, with Q2 and Q3 seeing particularly weak deal volumes, before a decent recovery in Q4. From a historical perspective, this would be... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
