US Economics Update Could the pandemic trigger another banking crisis? The coronavirus-related recession will lead to a marked increase in defaults on bank loans but, while that will hit earnings and justifies the sharp sell-off in banking stocks, the greatly improved... 7th April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing demand to collapse as virus takes hold The coronavirus will cause a severe contraction in housing market activity. Mortgage applications for home purchase have already seen a 33% drop from their peak in late January. A surge in... 7th April 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economic Outlook Virus disruption will only be partly reversed in H2 As a result of the coronavirus and the containment measures put in place to constrain its spread, we now anticipate an unprecedented 40% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, with the unemployment... 6th April 2020 · 22 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed battling unprecedented hit to economy In case it hadn’t fully hit home yet, the surge in jobless claims last week, the reported collapse in vehicle sales and employment in March, and the size of the Fed’s policy response all underlined... 3rd April 2020 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Winners and losers in retail property Retail property looks most heavily exposed to the disruption from the coronavirus crisis. But not all retail is equal and different sectors will see very different impacts. In our view, neighbourhood... 3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 701,000 plunge in non-farm payrolls in March, which is already close to the worst monthly declines during the Global Financial Crisis, suggests the coronavirus pandemic started to decimate the... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A short recession could mean US equities bounce back quickly Measures to contain the coronavirus will probably cause the one of the biggest ever reductions in output in the US. But if we are right that it will not last very long, equities may be past the worst... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Initial Jobless Claims (w/e March 28th) This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the data was released on 2nd April. The surge in initial jobless claims to a record high of 6,648,000 last week, from 3... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Housing starts to suffer permanent loss from COVID Single-family housing starts were in a strong position prior to the arrival of the coronavirus and builders would, in normal circumstances, look through what is anticipated to be a temporary dip in... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US equities likely to rebound before recession ends While the coronavirus epidemic will probably weigh on the US economy much beyond the end of this year, we suspect that the S&P 500 will start recovering in the second half of 2020. 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The marginal fall in the headline ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in March, from 50.1, indicates that the initial hit to the factory sector from the coronavirus was more muted than feared. With many... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short downturn should help insulate property yields Elevated corporate bond yields suggest that property investors should be concerned about future cashflows. However, unprecedented policy support should help most companies stay afloat. And evidence... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Distress in the MBS market meant mortgage rates were volatile over March, but they started and ended the month at a record low of 3.47%. While that has helped refinance demand, applications for home... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook COVID-19 will leave year-end capital values 9% lower 27th March 2020 · 22 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to fall by 4% The collapse in home sales, and hit to households’ income and savings, means house prices will fall back. But lender forbearance and the fiscal package will prevent a surge in forced sellers, and with... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Even with stimulus, virus will deal economy lasting hit The agreement on a $2trn fiscal stimulus, the Fed’s actions and tentative signs that quarantine measures in Europe are beginning to curb the virus spread have all helped steady the mood in markets... 27th March 2020 · 8 mins read
