US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales recorded their largest month-on-month decline in 4½-years in March, but given sales are recorded with a time lag that only represents the start of the fall in activity. Realtor... 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the Fed monetising the deficit? The scale of the Fed’s purchases of Treasury securities in the first few weeks of the pandemic, in addition to the sheer size of the broader expansion in its balance sheet, arguably suggests that the... 20th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update S&P’s outperformance may endure if big remains best The S&P 500’s outperformance of many benchmark indices outside the US since the outbreak of coronavirus may not be surprising, given that it was also a salient feature of much of the previous decade... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Incoming data just get worse and worse The massive declines in retail sales and industrial production last month make it clear that the slump in activity, which only began in mid-March, was unprecedented in terms of both its speed and its... 17th April 2020 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Early data indicate big, but short-lived, housing impact The largest fall in new home buyer traffic on record in April supports our below-consensus call for a 50% q/q drop in new home sales in the second quarter. But the share of households seeing now as a... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Coronavirus deals unprecedented blow to activity The early hard data for March confirmed an unprecedented hit to economic activity from the coronavirus pandemic, with retail sales seeing the sharpest monthly fall in the survey’s 30-year history and... 16th April 2020 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office foundations look less shaky this time around After a decade of relatively cautious real estate lending and steady, rather than stunning, economic growth, office development has remained fairly subdued. What’s more, for both practical and... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) Both single and multifamily housing starts recorded large declines in March, as the coronavirus cut housing demand and disrupted the ability of homebuilders to work. Single-family starts will see... 16th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 5.4% m/m plunge in industrial production in March, which was the sharpest monthly fall since 1946, highlights that while coronavirus containment measures have primarily slammed the brakes on... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 8.7% fall in retail sales last month suggests that first-quarter real consumption declined by up to 5% annualised. As the lockdowns were only introduced in the middle of last month, however, a... 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Paycheck protection program will reduce scarring The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) of forgivable small business loans has come too late to prevent the huge initial wave of layoffs, but will be more useful in helping less directly affected firms... 14th April 2020 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Mar.) The amount of debt secured against real estate and held by commercial banks continued to grow in March. But the bigger picture is that the rate of growth of lending is showing signs of weakening and... 10th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Residential REITs not pointing to house price crash The 27% drop in the price of residential REITs since late February is not a sign that house prices are set for a significant fall. The past relationship with house prices has been poor and on an... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly The curve is flattening, but economy is in freefall This week brought early signs that the restrictions put in place over recent weeks are flattening the epidemic curve in the US. But set against that good news, there are clearer signs that the hit to... 9th April 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update UI expansion to cushion blow from layoffs The significant increase in unemployment insurance payments included in the recent fiscal package means that many claimants could end up being paid close to what they previously earned. This suggests... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update REIT price falls consistent with a 5%-10% value drop The nearly 40% peak-to-trough fall in US REIT prices points to a fall of around 5%-10% in direct real estate capital values, providing this proves to be a relatively short-lived recession. At a sector... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
