US Economics Update Fed keeping all options on the table Since the Fed had already gone all-in on its monetary policy stimulus, it was little surprise that there no major policy announcements in today’s statement. Over the next few months the Fed will... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) Since the pandemic-related lockdowns only really began in earnest in the final two weeks of the quarter, the 4.8% annualised decline in GDP over the first quarter as-a-whole illustrates that activity... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Are HELOC draws set to surge? Uptake of home equity lines of credit surged during the financial crisis, as households made use of existing facilities to replace lost income. But, even as the unemployment rate reaches a record high... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1) Data for the first quarter show that all-property total returns saw their weakest quarterly performance since the tail-end of the GFC. Given that occupier market conditions have since deteriorated and... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal rescue to push debt burden close to WWII levels With Congress ramping up its fiscal stimulus rescue package, federal debt will rise above 100% of GDP this year, not far off the record high of 108% of GDP in the aftermath of WWII. That is not a... 28th April 2020 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb.) Low inventory and mortgage rates helped house price growth accelerate over the turn of the year. But the sharp drop in housing demand caused by the coronavirus means prices are set for a modest fall... 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Flexible offices pose a risk to otherwise insulated sector Relative to its performance in the GFC, the office sector should be fairly resolute in this downturn. However, the rapid growth of flexible office space poses a downside risk in some markets. What’s... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Q1 GDP contraction only a taste of what’s to come The plunge in activity in the second half of March, as coronavirus restrictions proliferated, means that the first-quarter GDP data – due next week – will show output contracting for the first time in... 24th April 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 14.4% m/m slump in durable goods orders in March was principally due to a massive 295.7% m/m decline in commercial aircraft orders, with core orders down by only 0.2%m/m. The upshot is that... 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Government support will prevent surge in rent arrears Jobless claims have reached 26 million, but by the end of last week the share of apartment tenants making a full or partial rental payment in April was down by just four percentage points compared to... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) The impact of the coronavirus on the housing market was made clear in March new home sales, which saw the largest month-on-month fall in over six years. Subdued mortgage applications point to a... 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How bad is the fallout in the labour market? The unemployment rate will surge to more than 15% in April but, unlike in a normal economic cycle, the high proportion of people on a temporary layoff leaves us hopeful that rate will come down... 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks jumped again last week, despite a small fall in production and a hefty drop in imports. Stocks are likely to continue to climb until the lockdowns are lifted, but the pace of increase... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Surveying the damage With the Fed having already slashed interest rates to zero and unveiled nine new lending programmes in recent weeks, officials will probably use next week’s FOMC meeting to take stock rather than to... 22nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Temporary immigration ban highlights longer-term risk President Trump’s tweet announcing a temporary ban on immigration is most likely just a short-term tactic to fire up his base. But it is hard not to see this as the beginning of an even more nativist... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Home sales to drop to record lows The disruption caused by the coronavirus will lead to unprecedented falls in housing market activity. We expect home sales will drop by 50% q/q in the second quarter, single-family housing starts will... 21st April 2020 · 17 mins read
