Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly fell last week, adding to growing evidence that the US oil market has passed the worst. That said, a sustained recovery is not on the cards for some time yet... 13th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office rent growth outlook downgraded Our initial expectations that office landlords would see only a limited and short-lived fall in occupier demand have given way to a growing likelihood of a more adverse outlook. We have therefore... 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales heading to record lows The impact of the coronavirus is showing up in housing market activity. Pending home sales plummeted 21% m/m in March, which points to existing home sales falling to just over 4m annualised in April... 12th May 2020 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The loss of 20.5 million jobs in April was largely as expected based on the tsunami of jobless claims and, although the unemployment rate only climbed to 14.7%, slightly below expectations, that was... 8th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys provide a poor guide for the months ahead The surprising resilience of the Markit PMIs and ISM indices this month is more a function of the survey design than an indication that the economic hit is not as bad as the hard data suggest. The... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Forbearance not a path to foreclosure The surge in mortgage borrowers seeking forbearance stands in contrast to a more modest rise in missed rental payments and suggests many have requested mortgage holidays as an insurance policy, rather... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update State & local cash crunch could worsen recession The coronavirus-induced collapse in economic activity means that state & local government tax revenues will plunge over the coming months. With balanced budget rules in most states meaning that lower... 6th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update US investors would do well to stay at home In light of the pandemic, our forecasts for developed market commercial property returns have been revised lower. Nevertheless, the relativities between the key markets are broadly unchanged, meaning... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update US-China tensions unlikely to subside before election There is a good chance that the renewal of antagonism between the US and China, this time over the origin of the coronavirus rather than trade, will persist – and might even escalate – in the run up... 6th May 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Mortgage applications for home purchase were down overall in April, but saw a decent recovery over the second half of the month. Record low mortgage rates will have supported demand to some extent... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to $44.4bn in March, from $39.8bn, came as a further fall in imports was outpaced by a plunge in exports, with both driven by a collapse in international travel and... 5th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index to 41.5 in April, from 49.1, was more modest than we and the consensus expected and leaves it at a level consistent with GDP falling at a 5% annualised pace... 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly April to mark the low point for economy It’s increasingly clear that the economy took an unprecedented hit in March and April. Barring a renewed national upsurge in coronavirus cases, however, the gradual lifting of containment measures... 1st May 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) Commercial property agents reported a dramatic deterioration in activity in Q1 and a commensurate fall in expectations for both rents and capital values. But with lockdowns extending deep into Q2 and... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update COVID to halt rise in homeownership Strong new home sales in 2019 helped the under-35 homeownership rate jump to a nine-year high in the first quarter. But, with the disruption from COVID set to cut home sales in half in the second... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Catastrophe We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by between 20 and 25 million in April, with the unemployment rate surging to between 15% and 20%. That would be an unprecedented loss of jobs in a... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
