US Commercial Property Update Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields could fall further still, but not the dollar We expect Treasury yields to fall a bit further, but we doubt that will lead to a weaker dollar. 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump now has clear lead Following Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, which appears to have hit his polling numbers and gone down badly with big donors, there is clearly now a good chance that he drops out of the race... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jun.) Although the 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June beat the consensus at 190,000, this was more broadly a disappointing report when we factor in the 111,000 downward revision to past months and... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Taking stock of hurricane season energy risks While the fossil fuel sector looks set to get off relatively lightly from Hurricane Beryl, the prospect of a busier than usual Atlantic hurricane season this year raises the chances of greater... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US activity unlikely to burst the AI bubble The US ISM services data published yesterday suggested that US economic growth slowed in June. Even so, the S&P 500 index surged on the news. And we think it will rise much further, as stock market... 4th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Trump's lead creates conundrum for our forecasts Following his disastrous debate performance last week, President Joe Biden’s odds of getting re-elected have gone from bad to worse. Former President Donald Trump is now unequivocally the favourite to... 3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 11-12) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-June policy meeting reveal that, not surprisingly given the split in the interest rate projections released at that time, officials were split on the outlook for inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a sharper hit to office demand is set to weigh on US property returns over the next couple of years. Overall, the UK is set to outperform over... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (June 2024) The decline in the ISM services index to 48.8 in June, from 53.8, takes it to its lowest since the lockdowns in 2020. Alongside a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, these surveys suggest that GDP... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (May) The trade deficit widened slightly to $75.1bn in May, from $74.5bn, as exports fell by 0.7% m/m, outpacing a 0.3% m/m decline in imports. Nevertheless, the decline in exports was more modest than the... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (June 2024) The decline in mortgage rates back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase to rise by 5.1% m/m in June. That gain was tiny in the context of the ongoing three-year slump in... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recovery in residential investment to lose steam The rebound in residential investment over the past year will go into reverse in Q2, as housing starts and home sales slump again. We expect this weakness to persist thanks to a coming slump in new... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data still point to softer wage growth Despite the modest rise in job openings in May, the big picture remains that labour market conditions continue to slowly normalise, and the low quits rate still points to a sharp slowdown in wage... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston and Chicago top the apartment rankings Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted... 2nd July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (June 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was little changed in June, leaving it consistent at face value with a small fall in GDP. While the ISM has not been a good leading indicator of GDP growth in recent years... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
