US Economics Weekly The long road to recovery Most of the 50 states have now begun to ease their lockdown restrictions, with many states in the interior now maintaining only minor restrictions on normal activity, although states on both coasts... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2020) Forecasts for all indicators in 2020 have shown a marked deterioration since the interim year-end 2019 forecast published in January. While the consensus sector ranking is in line with our March... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of resilient consumer confidence The relative resilience of consumer confidence in spite of the huge rise in unemployment is testament to the government’s fiscal rescue efforts and suggests the recovery will accelerate as fear of the... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales saw another sharp drop in April, as the shutdown of large parts of the country disrupted housing market activity. Despite a strong recovery in mortgage applications for home... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch The outlook for US shale production Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, oil demand has plummeted, and prices have slumped. In this Energy Watch, we consider what this means for the US shale industry. 21st May 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Next wave of fiscal measures to be less impressive Congress will probably agree to another round of fiscal support over the coming weeks, but we doubt that will make a huge difference to the economy, given that it appears set to be an order of... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Downturn set to hit home in Q2 Measures to slow the spread of the virus have had a hugely detrimental impact on the US economy. This began to hit occupier demand in Q1, but is yet to be reflected in dramatic changes in vacancy or... 20th May 2020 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Starts well-placed to recover as country reopens In April, single-family housing starts saw their largest month-on-month drop since records began in 1970. However, we are relatively optimistic that starts will recover as more builders are able to... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) The shutdown of large parts of the country meant single-family housing starts recorded their largest month-on-month fall on record in April. In the Northeast starts were down over 70% compared to... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Lockdowns shutter one fifth of the economy The latest hard data suggest economic activity was running 20% below February levels in April, a far sharper downturn than the 2008/09 financial crisis and one compressed into just two months. With... 19th May 2020 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) The stock of outstanding debt secured against commercial property grew again in April. But lending started to fall back in the second half of the month as demand for and supply of new borrowing... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly CPI overstating near-term deflationary pressure The news this week that core consumer prices fell by 0.4% m/m in April has added to the speculation that the pandemic could tip the US into a Japan-style deflation. Rather than reflecting a decline in... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 11.2% m/m fall in industrial production in April was bigger than at any point in the index’s 100-year history, including the Great Depression, the end of World War 2 and the Global Financial... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The 16.4% m/m plunge in retail sales last month leaves sales 21% lower than in February, a slightly bigger hit to consumption from the lockdowns than we had anticipated. Even with many states now... 15th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update House price expectations turn negative Consumers now expect house prices to fall 2% over the next 12-months, the first negative reading since 2011. That will cut the amount buyers are willing to pay and, alongside a drop in rents, supports... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Activity recovering only gradually as lockdowns ease The early evidence suggests that, even in states which have begun to ease lockdown measures, demand is initially recovering only gradually. It also points to the recovery completely bypassing some... 14th May 2020 · 4 mins read
