US Economics Weekly Rebound in hiring adds to signs of faster recovery The 2.5 million rebound in employment last month reverses only a small fraction of the jobs lost since February. But considering we and the consensus had been braced for another large decline, it... 5th June 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Which metros are best placed for recovery? As US states emerge from lockdown and the worst of the economic crisis appears to be over, thoughts are turning to the recovery. In this, not all parts of the US will be equal. Some insight into the... 5th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The surprise 2.5 million rise in payroll employment last month indicates that the process of rehiring began sooner than the jobless claims figures suggested. With more states moving to loosen their... 5th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Explaining the recovery in home purchase demand Record low mortgage rates, plenty of spare time, the need for more space, increased savings and the anticipation of picking up a cut-price home all help explain the surprise recovery in mortgage... 4th June 2020 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Real estate yields will still hit new lows in this cycle In a world in which central banks and governments are likely to ensure that sovereign bond yields stay low for the long-term, real estate is well-placed to benefit. Therefore, although we expect... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone incomes will be hit harder than US On the face of it, the surge in unemployment in the US implies that households are being hit harder by the crisis than those in Europe. But much of this reflects differences in the way that furloughed... 3rd June 2020 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) Mortgage applications for home purchase have risen in each of the past seven weeks, and in May were up 2.7% y/y. With the unemployment rate at a record high, that strength in demand is surprising... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What is REIT sub-sector performance telling us? The partial recovery in REIT prices since their late March trough gives further support to our view that all-property capital value falls will not exceed 10% this year. But, with data centres, single... 29th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report We think that the market is right to dismiss the latest chunky build in US crude stocks as it was largely driven by a rise in imports, which is likely to prove a one-off. Instead, a further fall in US... 28th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview As bad as it gets? We estimate that non-farm payroll employment fell by 9 million in May, taking the cumulative decline since February close to 30 million and pushing the unemployment rate above 20%. 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Why have new home sales shrugged off COVID? An incentive to sell to support cash-flow, relatively affluent buyers and a streamlined selling process help explain why new home sales increased in April even as the unemployment rate hit a record... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The big drop in durable goods orders last month was once again driven mainly by plunging transport orders with underlying capital goods orders falling more modestly. Together with the drop in... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Outperformance of E-Z over US equities likely to continue As equity markets have been generally edging higher over the past week, one thing that has been overlooked is the improvement in the relative performance of euro-zone equities. Provided a renewed... 27th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of the rally in US equities Although the S&P 500’s rally over the past two months is remarkable, we don’t think that it reflects excessive optimism among investors. In our view, equities can rise further from here. 27th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Risks to income streams nullify improved valuations Property valuations improved markedly in Q1 thanks to a more-than 120 bps fall in Treasury yields as investors flocked to safe-haven assets. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter of improving... 27th May 2020 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Mar./Apr.) New home sales edged higher in April, after recording their largest month-on-month slump in over six years during March. The latest rise was in line with recent improvements in mortgage applications... 26th May 2020 · 2 mins read
