Energy Update US gasoline demand will take time to fully recover Gasoline demand in the US is recovering from the coronavirus-related slump. However, we think that it will take some time before consumption fully returns to its pre-virus level. 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US election could weigh on equities in the second half of 2020 While we have been sceptical of the argument that shifts in the perceived likelihood of different outcomes in the upcoming US elections have been a major driver of US equity markets this year, that... 22nd June 2020 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Existing home sales saw another substantial decline in May but with the country reopening, and housing demand surging on the back of record low mortgage interest rates, we suspect they have now... 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing sector will take longer to recover There was a large disconnect between the extent of the sizeable rebound in retail sales in May and the much more lacklustre recovery in manufacturing output last month. We expect the gap to close over... 19th June 2020 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Consumers wasting little time as lockdowns ease The 17.7% m/m jump in retail sales in May showed that consumer spending is recovering far quicker than most had expected as lockdowns have eased, with headline retail sales reversing their April drop... 18th June 2020 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Update Inventory outlook worsens A drop in house price expectations has helped boost demand from some looking to pick up a bargain, but it has also encouraged sellers to delay listing until the price outlook improves. Indeed, selling... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Post-lockdown recovery exceeding low expectations The unexpected strength of the bounce-back in retail sales in May could mean that we are underestimating the potential for economic activity to return to pre-pandemic levels soon. Nevertheless... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook 2020’s yield rises to be reversed by 2022 In the absence of a full-on second wave of the virus, we expect a strong economic recovery in the second half of the year and into 2021. Nevertheless, we expect occupancy to fall this year as... 17th June 2020 · 22 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in infections won’t stop economy rebounding The rise in new infections in a handful of states across the South and West is nothing like the national surge we saw in late-March and early April that triggered widespread lockdowns. It does... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) Single-family housing starts were unchanged in May but, helped by strong housing demand, building permits posted their largest month-on-month gain in 30 years. With more of the country opening up, and... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Surge in corporate debt could weigh on recovery The dramatic pandemic-related rise in government debt has attracted most of the attention, but it is the surge in corporate debt that could exert a bigger drag on the economic recovery in coming years... 15th June 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Is the end of the $600 UI payments a major risk? The potential expiry of the expanded $600 weekly unemployment insurance payments at the end of July could weigh on consumption. But those payments look more likely to see at least a partial extension... 15th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (May) Debt secured against real estate fell in May. While this was mostly driven by a decline in outstanding residential loans, weekly data show that debt secured against commercial property flattened out... 12th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will the rental market bounce back? The factors that drove the resurgence in home purchase mortgage demand, including record low mortgage rates, the need for more space and the anticipation of finding a bargain, will not give a similar... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed takes first steps to strengthen forward guidance The Fed left its policy stance broadly unchanged at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting, but it did strengthen its forward guidance a little – by publishing interest rate projections that show... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home purchase mortgage applications surge By the end of May, mortgage applications for home purchase had fully reversed their earlier drop. New home sales have also performed better than expected, with a surprise month-on-month rise in April... 9th June 2020 · 9 mins read
