US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 4.8 million increase in non-farm payrolls in June provides further confirmation that the initial economic rebound has been far faster than we and most others anticipated. But that still leaves... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will a flood of new apartments boost vacancies? The hit to apartment absorption from the coronavirus has occurred at the same time as a large number of new units are set to enter the market. Even with current tenants staying put, that raises the... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Chance of Democratic landslide increases risk to US equities The rising odds of a Democratic landslide in November’s US election could become an increasingly important factor for US equities in the second half of the year. 1st July 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The jump in the ISM manufacturing index to 52.6 in June, from 43.1, adds to the evidence that factory sector activity has recovered fairly quickly as the initial wave of lockdown measures has been... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over the last two weeks of June, even as mortgage rates fell to record lows. The pent-up demand from the spring buying season now looks to have... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) The further acceleration in annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure in April reflected the strength of the housing market at the start of the year, when the impact of the coronavirus was... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q2 2020) With the largest fall in occupier demand expected in New York City and San Francisco, and completions staying relatively strong in Los Angeles and SF, we expect these cities to see the largest rental... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Biden now the front runner The latest polling and betting odds data suggest that Joe Biden is pulling ahead of Donald Trump in the race to win November’s Presidential election. Trump’s approval ratings have taken a hit from his... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Resurgence in COVID-19 cases a key risk to our S&P 500 forecast Our forecast that equity prices will make renewed headway in due course is predicated on fresh outbreaks of COVID-19 being small and localised. That assumption is being challenged by a resurgence in... 25th June 2020 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview The long road back We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by five million in June, as more furloughed employees returned to work. That would be another encouraging sign of the strength of the initial... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) & Jobless Claims (Jun.) Consumption and investment rebounded strongly in May, as the lockdowns were eased, but the recovery in production has lagged behind, as manufacturing plants gradually reopened through the month... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose again last week as some production came back online after being hit by Tropical Storm Cristobal. Nevertheless, we expect that stocks are nearing their peak as refinery... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Apr.) Following a gain of 0.1% m/m in March, the modest 0.2% m/m rise house prices in April shows a marked weakening in house price growth. It is too soon to tell how much of an impact the coronavirus has... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) New home sales reversed most of their coronavirus related decline in May, helped by the gradual reopening of the country. A healthy level of inventory means new sales are well-placed to take advantage... 23rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed may have to ramp up Treasury purchases again The Fed’s balance sheet has started to shrink again, as the emergency liquidity measures deployed at the height of the crisis have started to wind down, the pace of Treasury purchases has slowed... 23rd June 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus Victory for the Democrats could hold back US equities The odds that Joe Biden wins this year’s US presidential election, and that the Democrats also win full control of Congress, have risen recently. While we expect US equities to fare reasonably well... 22nd June 2020 · 16 mins read
