US Commercial Property Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rebound in consumer prices last month confirms that the disinflationary impact of the lockdowns in March and April is now going into reverse, but inflation is likely to remain muted over the... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Q2 earnings season to corroborate varied performance of sectors The Q2 earnings season in the US, which kicks off this week, will shed more light on how companies in different sectors of the stock market have been adversely affected by the spread of coronavirus... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jun.) Total debt secured against real estate nudged lower again in June. More timely weekly data point to signs that residential lending has already begun to grow again as housing demand has surged, but we... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery is losing momentum A growing range of indicators suggest the economic recovery stalled in late-June and early July, in part because of a resurgence in virus infections. There’s clearly a risk that the virus continues... 10th July 2020 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Strong home demand to support sales and building After a brief pause in the second half of June, record low mortgage rates helped push applications for home purchase to an 11-year high in the first week of July. That will help reverse the earlier... 9th July 2020 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Treasuries post GFC & COVID: Spot the differences We continue to expect the 10-year conventional Treasury yield to remain firmly anchored, even as the S&P 500 rises further. This would be a marked contrast to the increase in the yield towards the end... 9th July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Pull-back in activity only partly due to new restrictions The high-frequency data suggest renewed fears about the coronavirus are starting to weigh on consumption even in states that haven’t moved to reimpose restrictions, reinforcing our view that the pace... 8th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS bondholders face mounting risks CMBS delinquencies have risen sharply in recent months, yet we aren’t expecting a repeat of the real estate debt meltdown witnessed in the GFC. However, non-performing loan rates are especially high... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Resurgent pandemic the key risk to our forecasts While we remain optimistic about the outlook for equities and other risky assets, the rapid increase in new coronavirus cases, especially in the US, poses a key downside risk to our generally... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate spreads likely to narrow further News that a major US shale oil producer filed for bankruptcy last week has raised concerns about a new wave of coronavirus-induced corporate defaults. But even if the default rate does pick up in the... 7th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Plunge in TIPS yields unlikely to be reversed any time soon The yield of 10-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) has now fallen to around the same level that it was in the spring of 2013, shortly before it surged. Nonetheless, we think that... 7th July 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economic Outlook Road to recovery will be long and bumpy The easing of the lockdowns has generated a bigger rebound in spending in May and June than we were originally anticipating but, given the resurgence in coronavirus infections, the pace of recovery is... 6th July 2020 · 24 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The VIX supports our view of a 35bps rise in NOI yields We expect real estate yields to spike this year due to both a rise in the property risk premium and lower expectations for property income streams. However, breaking down the observed yield gap into... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Employment rebound points to further rally in US equities Today’s far-better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls has helped push the S&P 500 up by another 1%. And so long as the US economy continues to recover and the recent spike in coronavirus cases there... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly New wave of infections prompts renewed closures In a quiet week for data, the ISM non-manufacturing index is the only release of note. Echoing the already reported rebound in the manufacturing index, we expect the non-manufacturing index to recover... 2nd July 2020 · 4 mins read
