US Commercial Property Update Mixed signals for retail rents Despite the stronger-than-expected rebound in US high street sales, retail property still faces greater uncertainty than any other commercial sector. Not only does the upsurge in virus cases present a... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Lack of inventory to weigh on home sales recovery Record low mortgage rates have helped housing demand to recover swiftly from the shock of the coronavirus, with mortgage applications for home purchase recently hitting a 10-year high. Home sales have... 23rd July 2020 · 17 mins read
US Chart Pack Recovery entering more gradual phase The rapid recovery in activity in May and June means that, after contracting by close to 30% annualised in the second quarter, GDP is already on course for a big rebound in the third quarter. But... 23rd July 2020 · 9 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report An increase in crude oil production and a reduction in refinery throughput led to an increase in crude stocks last week. However, we think that stocks will fall back in the coming weeks as product... 22nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / Existing Home Sales (May/Jun.) The reopening of the economy and pent-up demand from the spring helped existing home sales bounce back in June. However, with a second wave of infections leading to renewed shutdowns and inventory... 22nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed looks to strengthen forward guidance The upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on 29th July, will probably be uneventful, but the Fed could strengthen the forward guidance in its statement, announce revisions to its so-far disappointing... 22nd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the dollar to come under renewed pressure Although the US dollar has stabilised over the past month or so as fears about a second wave have held back the rebound in risky assets, we continue to think that it will lose further ground over the... 20th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Housing starts bounced-back in June, and are now down only 4% y/y. A surge in housing demand to 10-year highs, and a lack of existing home inventory, has boosted new home sales and reversed all the... 17th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Focus on near-term and medium-term fiscal plans With the pace of infections rising across most of the country, and the economic recovery in danger of going into reverse, we suspect that Congress will, at least partially, extend the enhanced $600... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Short, sharp, downturn will prevent major LTV breaches Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (June) The better-than-expected 7.5% m/m increase in retail sales in June suggests that the resurgence in coronavirus infections in the South and the West hadn’t yet had an impact on consumers. Admittedly... 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update The lasting impact of the virus on the labour market Even though unemployment is likely to continue declining faster than in previous recoveries, we still expect the unemployment rate to remain elevated for years, falling to 8.7% by the end of 2020 and... 16th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think that US REITs could outperform US equities The recent underperformance of US equity REITs compared with ordinary US equities seems to reflect concerns that the coronavirus could change behaviour in a way that hits the demand for many types of... 16th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks in commercial storage fell last week, though this was primarily a result of the collapse in net imports. Gasoline demand actually slipped back as some states moved to re-impose lockdowns. 15th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The 5.4% rise in industrial production last month was driven by an even stronger 7.2% gain in manufacturing output as producers, particularly in the auto sector, reopened factories to catch up with... 15th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Property after the pandemic Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
