US Economics International Trade (Jun.) The latest trade figures confirm that both exports and imports finally began to rebound in June, and we could see continued rapid gains over the coming months as trade catches up with the strong... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Mortgage applications for home purchase trended down over July, even as the 30-year mortgage rate fell to a record low 3.14%. The working through of pent-up demand from the spring, record low... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for office-based employment? We expect office-based employment growth to be faster than total employment growth by around 0.3-0.5% ppts each year over the next decade in the US, the UK and the euro-zone. The coronavirus crisis... 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.2 in July, from 52.6, suggests that output continued to rebound last month. Given that the recovery in production has lagged behind the recovery... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Consumption to keep rising regardless of fiscal delay Even though Congress failed to prevent the $600 additional UI payments from expiring last Friday, we still expect a deal in the coming weeks which will offset the continued hit to incomes from the... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed lining up more support as fiscal talks drag on The second-quarter GDP data released this week, which showed output plunging by a record 32.9% annualised, highlighted the unprecedented hit to the economy from the pandemic. We know that activity... 31st July 2020 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2) Commercial property agents reported a worsening in activity and forward-looking sentiment for both the office and retail sectors this quarter. In contrast, there was a sharp improvement in industrial... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market recovery slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment rose by “only” 1.0 million in July, as the renewed spread of the virus started to weigh on the economy. With employment currently still 15 million below... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) The 32.9% annualised decline in GDP in the second quarter, more than three times larger than the previous record quarterly contraction, underscores the unprecedented hit to the economy from the... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed still likely to provide more accommodation While the Fed left its policy settings unchanged and opted not to strengthen its forward guidance at the conclusion of its meeting today, its downbeat assessment of the economic outlook still suggests... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership has not been given a COVID boost The unprecedented surge in household formation and the homeownership rate in the second quarter is not a sign that Americans are fleeing rental apartments in the city to buy homes in the suburbs... 29th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (May) House prices rose by just 0.1% m/m in May on the Case-Shiller index, which together with a slowdown on the FHFA index indicates that the collapse in sales caused by the coronavirus is now weighing on... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2020) As expected, all-property total returns turned negative in Q2, led lower by sharp markdowns in the retail and hotel sectors. And, while rental values and capital values fell in all sectors last... 27th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) Another solid rise in durable goods orders in June left core orders just 3.7% below February levels, underlining how the hit to business investment during the pandemic has been relatively mild... 27th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) New home sales have now more than reversed the drop seen earlier in the year, reaching a 13-year high in June. The sales outlook is positive - new home buyer traffic has returned to 22-year highs, and... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowing recovery will prompt more policy support The first increase in initial jobless claims since late-March last week has heightened fears that the economic recovery has started to go into reverse. Most other high-frequency indicators point to... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
