US Housing Market Update Foreclosure backlog to unwind in final quarter The foreclosure process ground to a halt in the second quarter, as lenders were banned from foreclosing on federally-backed mortgages and the court system largely closed. While we expect most of those... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations need to improve further to entice investors Property valuations improved substantially in Q2, on the back of a huge 120 bps drop in equities earnings yields. However, while the office, retail and apartment sectors look undervalued on our... 20th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Rebound in inflation has further to run Although core CPI inflation remains muted at 1.6% in July, the surge in prices last month specifically could be the start of a more significant rebound, as the added costs and ongoing supply... 18th August 2020 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Housing starts surged for the second consecutive month in July, and single-family starts are now only 10% below their pre-COVID level. Flight to the suburbs may explain some of the increase in... 18th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jul.) July’s increase in real estate debt was mostly driven by residential loans, but commercial property debt also ticked higher. However, with investment totals weak in Q2, this could simply reflect the... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus hangs in the balance A week later, it is still unclear whether President Donald Trump’s executive orders on unemployment benefits and payroll taxes will provide any meaningful fiscal stimulus during the second half of... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) Despite the 3.0%m/m rise in industrial production in July, it remained 8.4% below its pre-pandemic February level, illustrating that the industrial recovery is still lagging behind the more impressive... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Marked deterioration in all sectors and more to come Occupier demand slowed further in Q2 and although completions were exceptionally weak, vacancy rose in most sectors. As a result, rental values fell in the office, retail and apartments sectors, while... 14th August 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (July) The details of the July retail sales report were rather better than the modest 1.2% headline gain let on and suggest that, while the recovery has lost pace, the slowdown has not been as sharp as we... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus How will the election shape the economic outlook? A Joe Biden victory in November together with Democrats winning back control of the Senate could see a big increase in taxation and federal spending, together with a shakeup of healthcare, regulatory... 13th August 2020 · 27 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Record low mortgage rates boost housing activity Mortgage rates have continued to fall, hitting a record low 3.14% at the end of July. Alongside the reopening of parts of the economy, and pent-up demand from the spring, that has helped home sales... 12th August 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m surge in core consumer prices in July, which pushed the annual core CPI inflation rate back up to 1.6%, from 1.2%, should end any speculation that the pandemic-related slump in demand... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The possible winners and losers from Biden’s tax plans While Joe Biden has said that he would clamp down on the US companies, particularly in the technology, pharmaceutical and biotech industries, who book much of their earnings in tax havens, we think... 12th August 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery continues as pace of infections slows The incoming data this week were almost universally stronger than expected, with even July’s non-farm payroll figures coming in above consensus. With the number of new daily coronavirus infections... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 1,763,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July confirms that, despite the resurgence in new coronavirus cases, the recovery remains firmly intact. With new infections now trending lower again and... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Remote working to hit office income by 20-25% 6th August 2020 · 25 mins read
