US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Following a surge in May, mortgage applications for home purchase have since stabilised at a level around 25% higher than last year. Pent-up demand, record low mortgage rates and some evidence of... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index in August indicates that, while manufacturing production has continued to recover, it is still badly lagging the stronger turnaround in spending. The... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update When it comes to retail, bigger is no longer better Retail malls are set to fare badly in this downturn as Americans avoid enclosed spaces and adopt online shopping practices. But regional and super-regional malls, which were already underperforming... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Inflation target change won’t turbocharge house prices Given interest rates are already very low, we doubt any additional stimulus introduced because of the change to the inflation target will provide a significant boost to the economy or house prices... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed adopts average inflation target Chair Jerome Powell announced this morning that the Fed will be adopting what he described as a “flexible form of average inflation targeting”, which we expect will trigger additional policy stimulus... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Fed adopts average inflation target Chair Jerome Powell announced this morning that the Fed will be adopting what he described as a “flexible form of average inflation targeting”, which we expect will trigger additional policy stimulus... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Census hiring to provide a boost We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a more modest one million in August and without the restarting of field operations for the 2020 Census, which probably added 250,000 jobs, employment... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The annual growth rates of the main monetary aggregates remain unusually elevated, but the growth rate of bank loans has fallen back. Furthermore, although those monetary aggregates are significantly... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The sharp rise in durable goods orders last month was flattered by a surge in transport orders, but core orders are nevertheless almost back to the pre-pandemic level, suggesting that the recovery in... 26th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Jun./Jul.) New home sales surged to a 13½-year high in July, as record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and a shortage of existing homes for sale all boosted activity. Tight markets and rising... 25th August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed plotting its next steps The Fed is very close to introducing changes to its policy framework that would explicitly allow for an overshoot of the inflation target to compensate for the undershoot over the past decade. Those... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Scenarios for the effect of remote working on US offices Given uncertainty around the level of adoption of remote-working, change in space allocated per worker and how large any reduction in supply might be, we provide a set of potential scenarios for the... 24th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What the DNC might signal for US equities In our view, US equities would do a bit better over the next few years if Donald Trump wins re-election than under Joe Biden. However, the tone of this week’s Democratic National Convention (DNC)... 21st August 2020 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul) Existing home sales had another strong month in July, surging to a 13½-year high. Pent-up demand from the spring, record low mortgage rates and some impact from households moving to the suburbs has... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Housing rebounds; conventions in full swing This week brought more evidence that the housing market has caught fire – with record low mortgage rates driving a V-shaped recovery despite high unemployment and an elevated mortgage delinquency rate... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Stocks likely to beat bonds regardless of election result Political uncertainty often seems to have weighed on the performance of US equities, both in absolute terms and relative to Treasuries, before a presidential election. But another lesson from history... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
