US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in August was a bit weaker than we had expected, but isn’t a huge concern given that sales are now nearly 2% above their pre-pandemic level. The expiry of the... 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The muted 0.4% m/m increase in industrial production in August wasn’t quite as bad as it looks, with Hurricane Laura causing a temporary 2.5% m/m drop off in mining production and the return to... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How much slack is in the labour market? With initial jobless claims still running at close to one million per week, it could be argued that, at 8.4% in August, the unemployment rate is not capturing the full extent of the slack in the... 14th September 2020 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Aug.) Total real estate debt held its ground in August, as a rise in commercial debt was offset by a drop in residential. The rise in the former can be explained by rent arrears, particularly in the retail... 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales surge as rental growth slows Applications for home purchase have levelled off, but at a level 25% higher than a year ago. That is now feeding through to home sales, with the pending home sales index rising to a 15-year high in... 11th September 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Layoffs back at pre-pandemic levels; fiscal talks stalled The July Job Opening and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released this week suggests the labour market is in much better health than the downbeat jobless claims figures imply. 11th September 2020 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The outsized 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in August was principally due to a 5.4% m/m surge in used motor vehicle prices which, unusually for this very early stage of the recovery, reflects problems... 11th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for housing in a post-COVID world 9th September 2020 · 22 mins read
US Economics Fed’s actions will speak louder than its words The Fed’s new average inflation framework implies that more stimulus measures are on the way, but it isn’t clear if officials will be ready to make wholesale changes at next week’s FOMC meeting... 9th September 2020 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will the eviction ban boost rent arrears? In contrast to the surge in mortgage forbearance following the CARES Act, we doubt the recently announced eviction ban will trigger a jump in rental arrears. For those who can afford it, deciding not... 4th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed playing down expectations of further stimulus In the wake of the Fed’s new policy strategy, a range of officials have used speeches in recent days to play down expectations that a major loosening in policy is imminent. While we still expect the... 4th September 2020 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The slighter softer 1,371,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August was flattered by the hiring of 238,000 temporary workers for the 2020 Census and means that more than half of those who lost their... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment to stay well below 2019 levels through 2021 Commercial real estate transactions are on course to fall by nearly 50% this year, despite a strong Q1. And with the latest data hinting that our downside scenario is now looking more likely, volumes... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul) Both exports and imports rebounded sharply in July, but the bigger gain in the latter means that the trade deficit widened to $63.5bn, from $53.5bn. Net external trade is on track to be a drag on... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Services weakness to weigh on employment The jobs report due on Friday should show employment continuing to rebound in August, but the ongoing weakness of demand in sectors like leisure and hospitality – which account for a higher share of... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Rebound in production has much further to run The recovery in manufacturing output has been relatively muted up to this point but, with goods consumption surging and, as a result, inventories now looking very lean for this stage in the cycle, we... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
