FX Markets Weekly Wrap What to make of Trump and the dollar The US dollar has bounced back over the past couple of days as interest rate expectations in the US have rebounded a little and the risk-off shift in equities bled into currency markets. While the... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shelter disinflation adds to case for September rate cut We were initially uncertain whether the notable slowdown in shelter inflation in June’s CPI report was the start of the long-awaited easing in housing inflation, but the latest all-tenant rent data... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Distress rising, but still a long way to go With the share of non-performing CMBS loans on the rise, and plenty of loans set to refinance onto a higher rate this year, recent data provide further evidence that distress will rise both this year... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy... 18th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Four points on rotation A recent surge in the Russell 2000 after the US CPI report for June was published last week has prompted claims that we are entering the initial stage of a secular rotation into US small-cap stocks... 17th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The rise in manufacturing output in June was better than we expected based on the small fall in hours worked, but it owed a lot to a rebound in motor vehicle production, which seems unlikely to be... 17th July 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jun. 2024) The rise in housing starts and building permits in June is not as good as it seems at first glance, as it was driven by gains in the volatile multi-family sector, which we think will prove temporary... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yield curve inversion nears its end? We expect short-term US Treasury yields to keep falling more rapidly than long-term ones, eventually putting an end to more than two years of an inverted yield curve. 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Flight to more affordable South set to continue Many households have left western metros in favor of those in the South over the past two years. With remote working looking like a permanent fixture of office-based jobs and affordability... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that... 16th July 2024 · 15 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (June) Although retail sales were unchanged in June, the strong 0.9% m/m rise in control group sales should ease concerns about the plight of the consumer in the wake of the renewed slump in sentiment... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Four key points on Trump & financial markets Recent events have increased the perceived likelihood of another Trump presidency and, in the process, provided a clearer steer on how market participants expect such an outcome to affect key... 15th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market fallout from that inflation print We think the rally in Treasuries and pullback in the dollar since US CPI data was released yesterday have further to run. But we doubt the big rotation within equities yesterday is a sign of things to... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Core inflation pressures rapidly easing Chair Jerome Powell told Congress this week that the Fed is looking for “more good data” to strengthen its confidence that inflation will return to 2%. That is exactly what the June CPI and PPI... 12th July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July adds to the evidence that consumers are increasingly struggling with high interest rates. Although the link between... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (June) Ignore the fact that core PPI increased by a slightly bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m in June and that May was revised to a 0.3% rise from unchanged. The PPI components that feed into the Fed’s... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
