US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The modest decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 55.4 in September, from 56.0, suggests that manufacturing output will continue to grow at a relatively faster pace, as producers catch up with the... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Elections, vaccine, and virus resurgence all key risks Following a 3.7% decline this year, we expect GDP growth to be a solid 4.5% in 2021, but the risks to that forecast on both sides are, frankly, enormous. The key downside risk is that recurring waves... 1st October 2020 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Update Supply of new homes running out Surging demand has led to a sharp drop in the number of new homes for sale, with the fall driven by a collapse in the inventory of completed homes. A jump in single-family building permits will... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) House price growth saw a further acceleration in July, as solid housing demand and low inventory put upward pressure on home values. With mortgage rates set to stay close to record lows, and no... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Does COVID-19 mean the end of real estate’s bull run? Commercial property has outperformed both Treasuries and equities in the last two decades, but the fast-forward of structural change caused by COVID-19 will mean that in the next decade property is... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in August was weaker than we had been expecting, but the underlying details nevertheless show that business equipment investment staged a V-shaped... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) Another strong rise in new home sales in August, to a 14-year high, pushed the months’ supply of homes to its lowest since records began in 1963. With housing starts constrained by surging lumber... 24th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Shifting down the gears We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 800,000 in September, as the pace of private sector rehiring slows further and the recent burst of Census hiring goes into reverse. 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Remote working fatigue won’t derail long-run adoption Low utilisation of office space supports our expectations of weak short-term demand. And, despite some firms raising concerns over productivity as the current remote work “experiment” continues, there... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Jul.) House price growth saw another strong gain in July, as surging demand and record low inventory put upward pressure on values. But with demand set to ease over the coming months, and mortgage lending... 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Existing home sales rose again in August, although at a more modest pace compared to June and July. With pent-up demand from the spring having now worked itself through, unemployment elevated and... 22nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Only industrial escapes downgrades While we expect the economic recovery to continue, there are downside risks in the next couple of years, particularly in the consumer sector. This will weigh on retail property, which we expect to be... 21st September 2020 · 23 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed fails to convince markets that it has changed After seeming to take a bold new step when it recently announced it would be adopting a flexible average inflation target, the Fed risked disappointing markets this week when it failed to back that up... 18th September 2020 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) At 1.021m annualised, single-family starts have now fully reversed their COVID-related drop. And, with building permits hitting a 13-year high in August and homebuilder confidence at a record high... 17th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to keep rates at near-zero until 2023 and beyond The FOMC’s updated economic and rate projections show that officials expect to leave the fed funds rate at near-zero until at least 2023 and probably well beyond that. With the five-year Treasury... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Purchase demand to support multifamily construction The sharp drop in the rental absorption rate would, other things equal, be expected to weigh on multifamily housing starts. However, the recent shift away from cities will provide an opportunity for... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
