US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2020) Consensus forecasts for this year have been revised upwards, although the outlook for total returns remains negative. At the same time, the prospects for 2021-22 have been downgraded, but only... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The more modest rise in core consumer prices in September, which came despite a further surge in used vehicle prices, suggests that the previous upward pressure on prices resulting from supply... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey suggests inflation has further to rise Despite high unemployment, the latest NFIB survey shows small businesses are struggling to hire qualified workers, while inventory levels are exceedingly lean. In contrast to September’s softer CPI... 13th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales will run out of steam soon Record low mortgage rates have continued to support home sales, with the pending homes sales index reaching its highest level since the series began in 2001. (See Chart 1.) But a rise in the 10-year... 9th October 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Post-election stimulus a key upside risk The rise in longer-term Treasury yields this week appears to reflect growing expectations of a Democrat clean sweep in November that could result in a larger fiscal stimulus down the road. Stock... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Is COVID-19 the death-knell for physical retail? Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural... 8th October 2020 · 27 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Is COVID-19 the death-knell for physical retail? Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural... 8th October 2020 · 27 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What could the election mean for commercial property? While Joe Biden is currently favourite to win the election, we don’t think the winner’s identity will have a major effect on the economy. We also don’t expect it to substantially alter the prospects... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) Mortgage applications were once again stable in September, with a small fall in refinancing applications offset by a small rise in home purchase demand. Mortgage rates hit another record low by the... 7th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rate of M1 rose to a new record high in August but, with growth in the broader monetary aggregates now easing and bank loans continuing to decline, there is still little chance of... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug) The trade deficit widened further in August, as imports continued to rebound at a faster pace than exports but, with domestic production continuing to ramp up and overseas demand also recovering, we... 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Deglobalisation to continue whoever wins US election With the US election result likely to have limited near-term implications for world GDP, the main issue for the global economy is how it affects US trade policy. Joe Biden would take a less aggressive... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democratic clean sweep becoming more likely The news that President Donald Trump has tested positive for coronavirus has raised the odds of not only Joe Biden winning in November, but of the Democrats sweeping Congress too. 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q3 2020) Absorption is falling in all markets and vacancy is ticking higher, particularly in D.C. and San Francisco (SF). But more pain is to come, and we have significantly downgraded our forecasts for the... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The weaker than expected 661,000 rise in non-farm payrolls last month was in part due to a drop in government education employment but, with the pace of private payroll gains continuing to slow... 2nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hopes fading for a real estate bounce next year While we continue to think that this year’s property downturn will be milder than in past cycles, next year’s recovery is looking more fragile. This in part reflects revisions to our economic view... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
