US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The 1.9% m/m rise in durable goods orders in September demonstrates that the economic recovery isn’t entirely dependent on consumers, with business equipment investment recording a swift bounce back... 27th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2020) All-property total returns moved positive again this quarter, as valuation downgrades reduced markedly. A lack of forced sellers has limited transaction activity and reduced observable evidence, which... 27th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) New home sales dropped back in September, the first contraction since the height of the pandemic in April. Pent-up demand from the spring is now dissipating and tight inventory, particularly of... 26th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Price Indices (Sep.) The RCA Commercial Property Price Index for all-property nudged higher in September, driven by improvements in the office and apartment sectors. But, with the exception of the industrial sector... 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Election race enters final stages With the final debate now done and dusted, America enters the final two weeks of the presidential election campaign with Joe Biden still leading in the polls and betting markets suggesting the... 23rd October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in mortgage payments an upside for house prices Despite a surge in mortgage applications, holdings of residential loans by commercial banks declined in August and September. We suspect that divergence is due to a rise in mortgage repayments, which... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling CMBS delinquencies explain slower debt growth Outstanding commercial real estate debt held by banks is likely to rise again in the coming months, providing the improvement in investment transactions seen in September continues. Yet even if there... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Existing home sales had another strong month in September, and month-on-month growth has now averaged 14% since June. But with housing demand easing back, and inventory getting ever tighter, that pace... 22nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) Single-family starts and building permits had another strong month in September, as builders increased production on the back of buoyant demand and dwindling inventory. A moderation in lumber prices... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial yields could be 50bps below offices by 2022 The industrial sector could see a further increase in its share of investment in the coming quarters thanks to both its own resilience and concerns surrounding the other sectors. Those diverging... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Virus on the rise again as election approaches The renewed upturn in coronavirus infections poses a downside risk to the economy and could also have a late bearing on the Presidential election in a little over two weeks’ time. 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Home sales to fall as inventory runs out Record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and some movement out of cities have helped drive home sales to 13-year highs. But with inventory falling to record lows, mortgage lending... 16th October 2020 · 17 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m decline in industrial production in September isn’t necessarily a sign that the broader economic recovery is in jeopardy when we know that retail sales rose strongly last month. But it is... 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The unexpectedly strong 1.9% rise in retail sales last month suggests the economy was carrying more momentum into the fourth quarter than anticipated, defying fears that the expiry of enhanced... 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Virus remains key risk to near-term outlook The upturn in coronavirus infections in the Midwest isn’t in itself a major concern, but a more widespread resurgence in cases over the winter would raise the risks of the economic recovery going into... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2020) Consensus forecasts for this year have been revised upwards, although the outlook for total returns remains negative. At the same time, the prospects for 2021-22 have been downgraded, but only... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
