Asset Allocation Update Uncertain election outcome leaves markets in limbo While the final results are yet to be determined, whoever wins the US presidency probably faces continued gridlock in Congress. That may explain why the moves in markets overall so far have been... 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Uncertain election outcome leaves markets in limbo While the final results are yet to be determined, whoever wins the US presidency probably faces continued gridlock in Congress. That may explain why the moves in markets overall so far have been... 4th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) & ADP Employment (Oct.) Although the markets remain firmly focused on the fallout from the election, the 365,000 rise in the ADP measure of private employment in October indicates that the labour market recovery is starting... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) Mortgage applications recovered some ground in October, as an upturn in refinancing offset a fall in home purchase demand. But the underlying trend is broadly flat since June and we don’t expect any... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Swathes of sublease space will soon hit office rents The volume of available sublease space already exceeds that seen in the last two downturns. And an average discount of 20% to landlord asking rents, rising to 30%-plus in some cities, will reduce the... 4th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year high of 59.3 in October, from 55.4, suggests that the rebound in production, which has so far lagged spending, should begin to catch up over the... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demand for expensive homes surges Wealthy buyers seeking homes during the pandemic have driven the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 to a record high. A lack of inventory has prevented a similar rise in the new home... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update What to watch for on election night With the race for control of Congress close and unprecedented numbers voting early this year, the results on election night are likely to be unusually volatile. If the polls are accurate and Democrats... 2nd November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty running high ahead of polling day Joe Biden and the Democrats still look on course to come out on top in Tuesday’s elections. But the surge in early voting means that election night could prove even more of a nail-biter than usual and... 30th October 2020 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) Occupier market sentiment remained at cyclical lows, but there was a small sign of improvement in the investment market. But we expect that only to be short-term respite, as the coming quarters are... 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Pace of recovery continues to slow We expect employment growth to have slowed further in October, with non-farm payrolls rising by 600,000 – albeit partly because of another drop-back in temporary employment as operations for the 2020... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) The 33.1% annualised rebound in GDP in the third quarter was unprecedented in size, but still left the economy 3.5% smaller than it was in the final quarter of last year. 29th October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed in wait-and-see mode Having rolled out major changes over the past few months and with the incoming economic data still solid, we expect the Fed to stand pat at next week’s meeting and leave its statement virtually... 28th October 2020 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Jump in asking rents points to move away from cities Despite issues with sampling due to COVID-19, the third quarter HVS survey did provide some interesting information on the impact of the virus. A surge in median asking rents was caused by a jump in... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How would TIPS fare if US inflation surged? We expect TIPS to continue to perform quite well, and better than conventional Treasuries, in the next few years. But we see a risk of higher inflation thereafter. That would, however, probably only... 28th October 2020 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Aug.) House prices had another strong month in August, with annual growth on the FHFA measure surging to 8.1%, a 14-year high. Record low mortgage rates have given a boost to housing demand, and record low... 27th October 2020 · 2 mins read
