Europe Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The unexpected drop back in core inflation to 1.6% last month, from 1.7%, reflects continued subdued demand in the services sector. With the explosion in virus numbers likely to put further downward... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Valuations could work in favour of US equity REITs The relatively low valuations of US equity REITs influence our view that they will outperform ordinary US equities over the next two years or so, provided that COVID-19 is contained. 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartments, retail and the terrible Ts: Tech & Tourism Cities with a large tourism sector, such as Las Vegas and Orlando, still employ 10% fewer people than they did in February, which will hurt retail spending and apartment demand. And, while office... 10th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Effective vaccine would be a game-changer The introduction of one or more highly effective vaccines early next year would prompt us to revise up our 2021 GDP forecast, possibly quite significantly. The prospects of a vaccine might convince... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Economic news will get worse before it gets better The high-frequency data suggest there is a growing risk that the recovery stalls over the next month or two, even as the growing potential for effective vaccines together with a bipartisan fiscal... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What to expect from a Biden presidency Much of President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda will be dead on arrival with the Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, but there is still a chance of more fiscal stimulus being passed, albeit... 7th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The global implications of the US election result While the US election has dominated the news cycle across the world, the outcome is unlikely to have a significant impact on the world economy. Short-term global prospects will continue to be... 6th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Election delivers gridlock, but more stimulus possible With Joe Biden taking the lead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania, it seems all but certain he will be the next President, while the Senate is likely to remain under Republican control. That means we... 6th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Political gridlock will rein in any Green New Deal The apparent failure of the Democratic Party to win a ‘clean sweep’ in this week’s US election means that many of the policy initiatives and spending proposals made by presidential hopeful, Joe Biden... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Political gridlock will rein in any Green New Deal The apparent failure of the Democratic Party to win a ‘clean sweep’ in this week’s US election means that many of the policy initiatives and spending proposals made by presidential hopeful, Joe Biden... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Political gridlock will rein in any Green New Deal The apparent failure of the Democratic Party to win a ‘clean sweep’ in this week’s US election means that many of the policy initiatives and spending proposals made by presidential hopeful, Joe Biden... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The 638,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in October is stronger than it looks as it included a 147,000 drop in temporary Census employment and, alongside the big fall in the unemployment rate, it... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed stands pat amid election uncertainty With the markets still relatively calm amid the ongoing election uncertainty, the Fed took the predictable decision to stand pat today. However, if the election results in a divided government – as... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The plunge in US commercial stocks largely reflects a hurricane-related drop in output, rather than strong demand. And with virus cases rising, demand should remain subdued in the coming weeks. 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
