UK Commercial Property Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to... 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks rose last week as rebounding output offset increased refinery activity. Meanwhile, with new US virus cases continuing to rise, we suspect that the risks to demand are now firmly to the... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Fall in FTB share good news for future rental demand Rising rental vacancy rates in large cities have not been accompanied by a surge in first-time buyers (FTBs). Indeed, 2020 saw the lowest share of FTBs since 1987. That implies many of those rental... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Fall in FTB share good news for future rental demand Rising rental vacancy rates in large cities have not been accompanied by a surge in first-time buyers (FTBs). Indeed, 2020 saw the lowest share of FTBs since 1987. That implies many of those rental... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family starts had another strong month in October, and are now up 75% compared to their trough in April. Record low inventory is supporting homebuilder confidence, and that points to further... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Unemployment benefit expiry not a major threat The expiry of the remaining enhanced unemployment insurance programs at the end of the year would hit the incomes of the unemployed but would be unlikely to deal a major blow to the economy. With... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Growth in narrow measures of the money supply has continued to edge higher as demand and saving deposits continue to accumulate but, with growth in broader measures of money and bank lending dropping... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The acceleration in manufacturing output in October suggests that, after lagging the broader recovery over the past six months, the factory sector is now making up some lost ground. With inventory... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The weaker than expected 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in October is still broadly consistent with our forecast that consumption growth will slow to 7.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. But the... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Pandemic increases risk of high inflation The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the... 16th November 2020 · 32 mins read
Long Run Focus Pandemic increases risk of high inflation The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the... 16th November 2020 · 33 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct.) Outstanding real estate debt fell markedly in October, but this was fully driven by a drop in residential loan balances. Commercial real estate debt was up only marginally, but the bigger point is... 13th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Concession stand President Donald Trump’s failure to concede defeat more than a week after the election is unprecedented, but unlikely to trigger a constitutional crisis. What matters more over the final months of his... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The rise in US commercial crude stocks last week is a stark reminder that, despite the recent optimism surrounding a potential COVID-19 vaccine, the recovery in oil prices still has a long way to go. 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rise in mortgage rates will temper housing demand The 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% last week, but we doubt it will stay there for long. A rise in 10-year Treasury yields means mortgage rates will soon tick-up. That will weigh on housing demand... 12th November 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
