US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains at risk of stalling We expect a further slowdown in the pace of non-farm payroll gains to 400,000 in November, as the recovery in the employment-intensive restaurant and leisure sectors stall. 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) October's durable goods data suggest that the economy started the fourth quarter on a strong footing, with business equipment investment continuing to rebound, but the second consecutive weekly rise... 25th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A fresh look at the relative performance of US equities We anticipate that MSCI’s benchmark index of mid- and large-cap equities in the US will underperform its index of those in other developed markets, as investors continue to focus more on the roll-out... 25th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Retail and office pricing still unattractive Property valuations improved for the seventh consecutive quarter in Q3, following another sharp fall in equities earnings yields. But this was the smallest rise in valuation scores this year and... 24th November 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Household saving could remain permanently elevated The huge amount of personal savings built up during the pandemic, if unleashed, represents perhaps the biggest upside risk to the economy over the coming year or two. But even once the spread of the... 24th November 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Sep.) House price growth is quickly entering boom territory, with both Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting a surge in annual gains in September. At 9.1% y/y, the rise on the FHFA index is the highest in almost... 24th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Occupier markets heading south Although the economy partially recovered in Q3, it is still operating well below capacity. Lower employment will weigh on the consumer sector over at least the next year. Office and retail have been... 20th November 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update 13(3) decision could be net positive for the economy The Treasury’s decision not to extend the majority of the Fed’s emergency lending facilities beyond the end of the year is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy given that those facilities... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Light at the end of an increasingly dark tunnel The good news on vaccines kept coming this week, but beyond those encouraging headlines, the inexorable rise in coronavirus infections is beginning to trouble us about the near-term economic outlook. 20th November 2020 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) Existing home sales surprised on the upside in October, rising to a 15-year high. However, even with mortgage rates set to stay low, we expect sales will see some retrenchment over the next few months... 19th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to... 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
