Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks declined in the latest data as net imports plummeted. But refinery activity remains subdued and the latest virus-related restrictions could see lower product demand in the coming weeks... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NYC apartment vacancy rates well-placed to recover As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update NYC apartment vacancy rates well-placed to recover As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The latest surge in coronavirus infections, which has forced a number of states to re-impose lockdowns, resulted in a worse-than-expected decline in retail sales in November. With case numbers still... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The solid 0.8% increase in manufacturing output last month underlines that production is continuing to catch up with the recovery in consumption. Production will continue to rise, even as consumption... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update State & local budget hit not as bad as feared The relative resilience of state & local government tax revenues during the pandemic means that the overall budget shortfalls facing those governments are likely to be smaller than many had feared... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov.) Commercial real estate debt growth accelerated in November. However, renewed lockdowns in many states may slow the recovery in investment activity, limiting debt growth in the next few months. 11th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Structural changes will keep office and retail in the doldrums While the news of vaccines provides a fillip to our economic outlook, it does not have a major bearing on our occupier market forecasts. After all, we expect that structural change, rather than... 11th December 2020 · 23 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy stalling on eve of vaccine rollout This week brought more evidence that the economic rebound has faded in the closing weeks of the year. The near-term risks are still skewed firmly to the downside, even as the vaccine rollout gets... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Q may be exaggerating US equity market overvaluation Although the level of “Equity Q” for the US non-financial corporate sector has risen to a record high, we are wary of concluding that the stock market is in an unprecedented bubble that is bound to... 11th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that US corporate spreads will narrow further While US corporate credit spreads are now close to their pre-pandemic levels, we think that they will fall further in general as the global economy recovers with the help of vaccines. 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Both headline and core consumer prices increased by 0.2% m/m in November, as the rebound in the prices of the goods and services that fell the most in the early stages of the pandemic continued. At 1... 10th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The huge counter-seasonal build in US commercial crude stocks last week was driven by a surge in net imports. We expect that it will take some time before stocks fall back to more “normal” levels. 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Boom in house price growth will prove short-lived The surge in home sales looks to be running out of steam. The pending home sales index dropped back in September and October, and that points to a fall in existing home sales in November. With pent-up... 9th December 2020 · 8 mins read
US Fed Watch Tinkering at the margins We expect the Fed to keep its main policy settings unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. But officials are set to unveil new guidance on their asset purchases, most likely pledging to maintain them... 9th December 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Focus What steps will Biden take to tackle climate change? President-elect Joe Biden stood for election on a far-reaching environmental plan which, although it will be harder to implement with the Republicans likely to control the Senate, still represents a... 9th December 2020 · 21 mins read
