US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) Even as mortgage rates stayed close to record lows, applications for home purchase declined in each of the last three weeks of December. With interest rates not set to fall further and the boost to... 6th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The jump in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-and-a-half year high of 60.7 in December, from 57.5, is at odds with the wider evidence that the economic recovery is slowing and suggests the... 5th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview New restrictions will drive renewed payroll losses We estimate that non-farm payrolls fell by 100,000 in December, the first decline since April. 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Oct.) Record low mortgage rates, surging home sales and tight inventory pushed annual house price growth to a 6½-year high in October, but we doubt the boom in prices will last for long. The past gain in... 29th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market to cool in 2021 The housing market boomed in the latter half of 2020, as record low mortgage rates, displacement due to COVID-19 and increased savings boosted home demand. But those drivers will ease in 2021 and... 23rd December 2020 · 17 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / New Home Sales (Oct/Nov.) New home sales fell 11.0% m/m in November, driven by a lack of inventory and pent-up demand from earlier in the year coming to an end. But easing demand is yet to feed through to house price growth... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods; Income & Spending (Nov.) The solid gains in durable goods orders and shipments last month underline the continued strength of business equipment investment, but the bigger story for the overall economy is that consumption... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural changes threaten the hotel recovery The hotel sector has been hit hardest by the virus, and we expect its recovery will be slower than the other sectors. And, even when vaccines pave the way for an improvement in occupancy, structural... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales fell for the first time in five months in November, as record low inventory and the exhaustion of pent-up demand from the spring put a dampener on activity. Record low mortgage... 22nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal boost not as large as headline figures suggest The $900bn fiscal relief deal agreed by Congress won’t represent as big a fiscal expansion as the headline figures suggest as it appears to mostly involve recycling the unused funding from previous... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Stimulus another reason for optimism about 2021 The additional $900bn stimulus that looks likely to be passed by Congress within the next day or two means that we are raising our GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.5%, from 5.0%. 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q4 2020) The changes to our forecasts this quarter reflect two partially offsetting factors – downgrades to occupier demand, and upgrades to the yield outlook. We expect NYC and San Francisco to be the worst... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recovery falters; Congress stalls; Fed tweaks The decline in retail sales in November confirmed the message from the slumping high-frequency activity data and the rising trend in jobless claims – namely that the restrictions imposed by many... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family starts rose for the seventh consecutive month in November, but at a slower pace. And with production constraints starting to weigh on homebuilder confidence, we think that gains will... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed tweaks its forward guidance The Fed tweaked the guidance for its asset purchases in the statement issued after the conclusion of today's FOMC meeting, with the new language implying those purchases could continue for longer than... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccines too late to prevent bleak winter There is now clear evidence that the continued surge in COVID-19 infections and restrictions imposed to control its spread are once again weighing on the economy, with employment growth slowing... 16th December 2020 · 9 mins read
