Capital Daily Weighing up US corporate bonds and equities The valuation of the US stock market appears much less stretched relative to that of the US corporate bond market than it did in the late 1920s and at the turn of the last century. 25th January 2021 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hospitality re-openings key to the outlook this year Leisure and hospitality re-openings were behind the strongest job growth in the Autumn, although national data for December suggest that this could be reversed on the back of renewed lockdowns. With... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Following five consecutive weeks of declines, commercial crude stocks in the US rose last week. Together with still-high rates of new COVID-19 infections, this points to a gloomy near-term outlook for... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Existing home sales recorded a marginal gain in December but are set to fall back over 2021. Mortgage rates will not decline any further and rising house prices have already reversed the boost to... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to signal willingness to accommodate fiscal boost Incoming President Job Biden signed a flurry of executive orders during his first couple of days in office, but it remains to be seen whether the divided Senate will support his broader agenda... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Narrowing spread will keep mortgage rates low With risk-free interest rates not set to drop any further, and home sales constrained by record low inventory, the cost of the prepayment option on MBS will have fallen. Alongside Fed purchases of MBS... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Single-family starts rebounded in December, recording their largest month-on-month gain since June. While production constraints will continue to weigh on starts, we are relatively upbeat about the... 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Soft patch unlikely to last much longer Recent data show the current wave of virus infections weighing on the economy, with retail sales falling again in December and the labour market recovery stalling. We think fourth-quarter GDP growth... 21st January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The surge in narrow money growth is entirely due to regulatory changes and a substitution out of savings accounts due to low interest rates. Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth has slowed... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Taper talk premature Aside from acknowledging the weakness in the incoming economic data in the policy statement, we expect the Fed to leave its policy settings unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. The additional fiscal... 20th January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily A closer look at US equities as earnings season kicks off Even if the US stock market is not in a bubble, it could still be vulnerable if analysts’ expectations for corporate earnings are too rosy. On balance, though, we don’t think this is the case. 19th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Three risks to our forecast for a weaker dollar Although several factors could conceivably support the dollar in the near term, we still think it will weaken overall this year as Fed policy remains accommodative and appetite for risk continues to... 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the renminbi to resume its rally against the US dollar While the recent rise in Treasury yields may have contributed to a very small unwinding of last year’s significant rally in the renminbi against the US dollar, we expect China’s currency to strengthen... 18th January 2021 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec.) Commercial real estate debt growth slowed in December, probably reflecting a softening in investment activity on the back of renewed lockdowns. This points to a similarly slow start to 2021 before the... 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales to cool as affordability worsens House price growth surged to 8.4% y/y in October, as booming home sales have combined with record low inventory to boost values. But that rise in prices has already offset the improvement to... 15th January 2021 · 9 mins read
