Capital Daily We expect the US dollar to weaken further this year We think the recent deterioration in risk appetite explains much of the US dollar’s strength this week, but we expect its downward trend will eventually resume. 29th January 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed standing firm despite more positive outlook The rapidly accelerating vaccine rollout means that the economic outlook continues to brighten. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone in his post-FOMC press conference this week reinforces our... 29th January 2021 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) Market sentiment remained close to cyclical lows, with rental and capital value expectations deeply negative for office and retail. But there are signs that the market is nearing a turning point, with... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US Treasuries & equities: squaring the circle For much of the past year, loose monetary policy has been the fuel that has kept the US stock market’s fire burning bright. It might seem odd then that the S&P 500 fell yesterday by the most in a day... 28th January 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The small gain in new home sales in December continues the run of falling or weak sales seen since August of last year. That moderation in sales is set to persist in 2021, as worsening affordability... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market treading water We estimate that non-farm payroll employment was broadly unchanged in January, but the recent fiscal support and drop-back in new virus cases suggest the labour market recovery will resume soon. 28th January 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) The more modest 4.0% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was mainly due to some temporary weakness in consumption, which was dragged down by the resurgence in coronavirus infections. With... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s Powell strikes dovish tone despite vaccines The Fed acknowledged in its post-FOMC meeting statement today that the economic recovery weakened in the final couple of months of last year, but balanced that near-term pessimism with greater... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks sank last week, as net imports plummeted. Assuming that progress on COVID-19 vaccines continues, we expect a pick-up in demand will weigh on stocks from Q2 onwards. 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Life science growth will support Boston offices We expect the boost in demand for life science product will support Boston’s office market. At the same time, office-to-lab conversions will limit the impact of a relatively large development pipeline... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the risks to Treasuries from future tapering It seems very unlikely that the FOMC will unnerve the bond market later today by signalling a tapering of its asset purchases (see here). But even when the time for such an announcement does come, we... 27th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Weighing up the prospects for US oil production Higher prices and a backlog of uncompleted wells should ensure that US crude oil production edges up slowly over the next couple of years. But with many of the challenges facing the sector still... 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update How big might the foreclosure wave be? We estimate a backlog of around 850,000 foreclosures will have built-up if the ban is extended until the end of September, similar to the peak seen during the financial crisis. However, not all those... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weaker 0.2% gain in headline durable goods orders in December was mainly due to ongoing problems among aircraft manufacturers and a drop off in defence orders. The bigger story is the continued... 27th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov.) House price growth continued to surge in November, with both Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting strong gains. At 11% y/y, the rise in the FHFA index is the highest since records began in 1992. But the... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2020) All-property total returns strengthened in Q4, broadly as we had expected. And the data continued to point to the importance of sector selection to returns. Perhaps the real surprise was that NCREIF... 26th January 2021 · 3 mins read
