US Economics Focus $15 minimum wage would add to inflation pressures We suspect that President Joe Biden’s plan to more than double the minimum wage within four years would have only a minimal impact on GDP. While there would almost certainly be some job losses as a... 10th February 2021 · 14 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in core CPI inflation to 1.4% in January, from 1.6%, illustrates that price pressures remain weak, but base effects will drive both core and headline inflation back above 2% over the coming... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys paint more optimistic picture of labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that labour market conditions remain stronger than the headline data imply and add to the evidence that inflation will rebound this year. 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Haus launches a new house price index As it is based on asking prices, the recently launched Common Haus Price Index (CHPI) could lead other house price indices by 1-2 months, which would make it a useful tool for forecasting short-term... 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the greenback’s rebound The US dollar has started 2021 on the front foot and, while we still think that it will eventually resume its downward trend, the risks around that forecast have shifted in favour of the currency. 8th February 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats pushing forward with stimulus plans This week the Democrats took the first step toward forcing a large-scale stimulus through the Senate using reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority. But even though it required an all... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The muted 49,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January illustrates that the recent wave of COVID-19 cases is still weighing on the economy. But with infections now dropping back sharply and the... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Toning down our optimism on US REITs While we still expect US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) overall to fare reasonably well over the next couple of years, we no longer anticipate that they will outperform the US stock market. 5th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate to hold steady in 2021 An improvement in the share of in-person interviews in the fourth quarter HVS survey helped bring the homeownership rate back down from its recent implausible highs. And, with home sales set to slow... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is unemployment higher than the headline data imply? Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s claim that the ‘true’ unemployment rate is still close to 10% only makes sense if the four million workers who left the labour force last year will return. It’s still too... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks continued their counter-seasonal decline last week, even as net imports rebounded and refinery throughput eased back slightly. We expect inventories to decline further over the... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The threat of higher interest rates drove mortgage demand higher in January, with refinancing activity seeing a particularly large gain. A narrowing spread means we expect the upcoming rise in... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update New space brings downgrade to NYC office rents The limited impact of the virus on New York City office construction means that we now expect at least 10mn sq. ft. of office space to be added across 2022-23. This could cause the vacancy rate to... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Easing credit standards to support consumer recovery The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey reveals that access to credit is improving for consumers, which will support an acceleration in consumption growth this year. 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.7 in January was a little weaker than we had expected, but it remains close to the three-year high of 60.5 reached in December and at a level consistent... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
