US Economics Weekly Economy buoyed by stimulus and drop in virus cases Economic activity seems to have responded strongly to the latest round of fiscal stimulus passed in mid-December and the drop in coronavirus case numbers, which has allowed for the easing of... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks plunged last week owing primarily to a rebound in exports. Next week, inventories could rise as the deep freeze in the southern parts of the US has knocked out several... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Sector and city performance to remain uneven Fiscal and monetary stimulus have kept economic growth solid and will support a continued recovery. While this bodes well for occupier demand, structural factors have weighed heavily on the office and... 18th February 2021 · 11 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) January’s 12.2% decline in single-family housing starts reversed the solid gains seen in December. Record low inventory is supporting homebuilder confidence, and that points to a strong year for... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Student debt forgiveness would do little for economy Even if a significant share of the $1.6trn of student loan debt owed to the Federal government was forgiven, it would provide only a limited boost to activity while driving a potentially sizable... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected 0.9% m/m rise in industrial production in January, driven by a 1% rise in manufacturing output, means that production is still lagging behind the recovery in goods... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update High unemployment to benefit homebuilders An elevated unemployment rate, alongside some relaxation in immigration restrictions, will help ease labour shortages in the residential sector this year. Admittedly, not all parts of the economy are... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 5.3% m/m surge in retail sales in January how quickly reopenings and the $600 stimulus cheques have fed through to stronger spending. The faster than expected fiscal boost means we now forecast... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The continued surge in growth of narrow measures of the money supply underline that the economy is awash with liquidity, but that will not trigger a surge in price inflation when growth in the broader... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) Commercial real estate debt growth picked up in January, seeing its strongest rise since April. That likely reflects a sharp increase in investment deals completed at the tail-end of 2020. While this... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update US lumber prices to fall back from lofty heights We think that slower growth in US housing starts and increased supply will weigh on the price of US lumber over the coming quarters. That said, prices are likely to remain elevated relative to past... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rising mortgage rates to temper demand Mortgage rates rose to a 12-week high in the first week February, and a further rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.5% means they will increase to around 3.2% by the end of the year. Alongside... 12th February 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Dovish Powell; economy emerging from hibernation With fiscal negotiations taking a backseat to the impeachment trial in the Senate, a dovish Powell speech took the limelight this week, together with signs that virus restrictions will continue to be... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update 10-year Treasury yield may rise a bit further With a large fiscal stimulus package looking increasingly probable in the US, and the Fed unlikely to push back on higher inflation expectations, we think the yield of 10-year US Treasuries may rise a... 12th February 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial REIT pricing points to a forecast upgrade The performance of the major FTSE NAREIT sub-sectors since the end of 2019 appears to suggest that our forecasts for 2021 might be too weak for industrial and too strong for the office and apartments... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell last week, while implied product demand strengthened. We expect these trends to continue over the coming months, as COVID-19 containment measures are eased. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
