Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks soared again last week as refinery throughput remained well below normal levels. Given that production has almost entirely recovered, stocks will probably rise further next... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Major downgrade to office occupancy forecasts On the back of deeply negative office absorption last year and the continued flow of announcements from firms cutting their office space, we have made major revisions to our demand forecasts across... 10th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Holding the (dovish) line We expect the Fed to leave policy unchanged at its mid-March meeting, though officials will try and use the statement and updated economic projections to push back on market expectations that rate... 10th March 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The rise in CPI inflation to 1.7% in February, from 1.4%, was largely due to higher energy prices, with core inflation still subdued. But base effects will push core inflation above 2% by April and... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Stimulus is big, but we won’t be revising our forecasts Although Democrats are close to securing passage of nearly all the $1.9trn originally requested by President Joe Biden in his American Rescue Plan, which is significantly more than the $1trn in... 6th March 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Reopening less of a positive for Boston apartments Greater availability, lower prices and proximity to NYC have supported demand for Boston apartments during the pandemic. That implies demand may edge back as the country reopens, and some workers... 5th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stimulus set to drive growth and inflation higher The sell-off in Treasuries continued this week, as Fed officials signalled that they are not overly concerned by rising yields and the Senate closed in on passing President Joe Biden’s $1.9trn fiscal... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Property valuations look solid despite rising bond yields A few weeks ago, we nudged up our Treasury yield forecasts for year-end 2021 and 2022, to 1.5% and 1.75% respectively. While intra-day yields exceeded 1.6% at one point last week, we don’t expect a... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks skyrocketed last week as refinery activity plunged and net imports surged. We expect stocks to a rise a bit further in the coming weeks as refinery throughput remains... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update What explains the huge drop in the labour force? Around half of the four million decline in the labour force over the past year reflects a wave of early retirements which is likely to be irreversible. The smaller 2.3 million drop in prime-age... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US stimulus would be more positive for oil than metals President Biden’s ‘American Rescue Plan’ has been cited as one the key factors in the recent run-up in commodity prices. But even if it is passed in full, we think it will do little to boost commodity... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed won’t over-react to rising real yields If real yields continue to rise we could see the Fed shifting the composition of its monthly asset purchases to focus more on the long end of the curve, but we doubt that it would be willing to adopt... 2nd March 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The further increase in the ISM manufacturing index last month to 60.8, from 58.7, highlights that the recovery in the sector remains red-hot, with the jump in the prices paid component suggesting... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The long view of property In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising Treasury yields squeezing property valuations On the back of rising Treasury yields, property valuations took their first hit in eight quarters during Q4. And, with Treasury yields climbing higher since, it is likely that valuation scores will... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update High lumber prices force builders to delay Record high lumber prices are leading to delays in housing starts, and as result the share of homes for sale that have not been started reached a record high in January. While that will constrain... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
