US Economics Update CPI inflation will rise back above PCE inflation The unusual rise in the Fed’s preferred PCE measure of inflation above CPI inflation in January partly reflects the impact of the differing methodology which, as spending patterns return to pre... 24th March 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The fall in durable goods orders in February was mainly due to the disruption caused by the severe winter storms, which we already know weighed heavily on manufacturing output last month. The latest... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Severe weather, tight inventory and worsening affordability pushed new home sales down to 775,000 annualised in February. And with mortgage rates likely to rise to 4.0% by the end of the year, home... 23rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The boom in housing market activity started to moderate in February, with existing home sales recording a substantial drop. Record low inventory will be constraining activity, as will worsening... 22nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Are data centres a viable alternative? Thanks to changing consumption patterns and structural and cyclical knocks to the traditional property sectors, both occupier and investor demand for data centres set new records last year. But, while... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed plays down prospect of rate hikes The updated economic projections released after the Fed’s mid-March meeting show that officials expect strong economic growth this year to have only a transitory impact on inflation, which explains... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Even with the continued recovery in refinery activity, US crude stocks rose last week. However, we suspect that stocks will fall soon as refinery activity rises further and crude production holds... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Chicago to be among the office market “winners” Our analysis suggests that both higher asking rents and a greater proportion of information jobs have been associated with a larger rise in sublease vacancy in recent quarters. We think there are good... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation to rise above 2% and stay there Base effects will temporarily drive headline and core CPI inflation up sharply over the coming months but, with underlying price pressures also starting to mount, we expect core CPI inflation to... 17th March 2021 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) Single-family starts fell for the second consecutive month in February, as winter storms and record high lumber prices disrupted construction. But as those constraints ease, housing starts will climb... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The 2.2% drop in industrial production in February was largely a result of the severe storms that battered the country in the second half of the month and should be mostly reversed in March. But there... 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 3.0% m/m fall in retail sales in February reflects the fading of the boost from the $900bn fiscal stimulus and disruption caused by the severe winter weather. Regardless, sales remain more than 4%... 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Feb.) After a stronger than expected increase in January, commercial real estate debt fell back in February. This suggests that last month’s gain was a one-off and not the start of a rapid acceleration... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in cash-out volume not a risk to the recovery With fewer spending options during the lockdown, the share of cash-out refinances is much lower than usual given the recent surge in house prices. And, while the volume of cash extracted has reached a... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Democrats far from done with stimulus With President Joe Biden having signed the $1.9trn American Rescue Plan into law, the discussion will now move on to the American Recovery Plan, the complementary package that will focus on longer... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Jump in mortgage rates hits housing demand Rising mortgage interest rates are starting to bring housing demand down from its recent elevated level. At 3.26% in the first week of March, mortgage rates were at an eight-month high. Coupled with... 11th March 2021 · 9 mins read
