US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The better than expected 916,000 rebound in non-farm payrolls in March still leaves employment 8.4 million below its pre-pandemic peak from just over a year ago but, with the vaccination program... 2nd April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook NYC and D.C. to benefit from COVID bounce-back All major city apartment markets will benefit from the reopening of the economy and reduction in remote work, with rental demand also supported by record low numbers of homes for sale. New York City... 1st April 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly New spending plan to face rockier path With the next phase of President Joe Biden’s Recovery plan spending likely to take a considerable time to pass Congress and be largely financed by higher taxes, it looks set to have a far smaller... 1st April 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 64.7 in March, the highest level since 1983, echoes the message from the other surveys that demand is surging. But the details suggest that supply is... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Introducing our common inflation expectations index In a world where the Phillips curve is flat, inflation expectations become the key driver of actual inflation over the medium term. But getting a true handle on inflation expectations is difficult... 31st March 2021 · 14 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The increase in refinery throughput and decline in net imports meant that US crude stocks fell last week for the first time in around two months. We expect that stocks will fall further in the coming... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q1 2021) There are forecast downgrades across the board this quarter, owing to the changes to our occupier demand expectations at the sector level. The markets broadly split into three pairs. New York City and... 31st March 2021 · 16 mins read
US Economics Update American Jobs Plan not a return to big government We suspect that President Joe Biden will struggle to garner bipartisan support for his $2trn in infrastructure spending, even if he was willing to placate centrist Senate Republicans by dropping his... 31st March 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan.) House prices made further strong gains in January, although there are tentative signs that month-on-month growth is starting to ease. With mortgage rates now rising, and set to increase further over... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The Fed’s asset purchases are fuelling a continued surge in the narrow money aggregates, but growth in both our M3 measure of broad money and bank lending remain on a downward trend. 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Is it finally infrastructure week? News reports suggest President Joe Biden will unveil plans for a large infrastructure package on Wednesday. We expect the package will take much longer and be harder to pass than the $1.9trn American... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up our forecast for the US dollar We now expect that the US dollar will strengthen somewhat over the next couple of years as the US economy outperforms and its policy mix diverges from that in most other major economies. 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Faster bond yield rises will limit prospects for capital values The vaccine rollout and stimulus bill are unquestionably positive for the economy but may be a mixed blessing for real estate. Those two factors are probably most positive for the apartment sector... 25th March 2021 · 24 mins read
US Housing Market Update Is buying sentiment pointing to a crash in home sales? Record low inventory, surging house prices and stretched affordability have pushed the share of households who think now is a good time to buy a home to the lowest since 2010. But, at the same time... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Easing restrictions to drive acceleration in jobs growth We expect the labour market recovery to have kicked into a higher gear in March, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 700,000. 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The pace of builds in US crude stocks continued to slow last week as refinery activity surged. However, we expect stocks to ease back in the coming weeks as refinery capacity utilisation steadily... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
