US Housing Is there still a bright future for Sunbelt apartments? The easing of virus restrictions and return to offices for many white-collar workers will mean that apartment markets in cities such as NYC and Washington D.C. will outperform this year. But we think... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The relatively modest 1.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in March, which was driven by a 2.7% rise in manufacturing output, was weaker than we had expected and illustrates that global supply... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The near-10% surge in retail sales in March reflects a small fraction of the windfall from the $1,400 stimulus cheques, which were largely saved. At the same time, loosening restrictions are playing a... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update US-Russia escalation as sanctions target sovereign debt The decision by the US to impose sanctions on newly-issued Russian sovereign debt has caused a sell-off in the ruble and sovereign bonds today, but we think any further market fallout or the... 15th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s fall in crude stocks in the US was the result of higher demand rather than lower supply. This bodes well for our view that a relatively strong economic recovery in the US will boost oil... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What does 2021 have in store for investment volumes? Property investment volumes held up better than we anticipated in 2020, and we are expecting 2021 to be a solid year for investment. We think that pent-up demand and the reopening of the economy will... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Policy stimulus to drive strong recovery The combined strength of fiscal and monetary stimulus and the early success of the vaccination program means that we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this year and 4.0% in 2022. We would be surprised if... 14th April 2021 · 24 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The outsized 0.6% rise in consumer prices in March, driven in part by a 0.3% rise in core CPI, is the clearest indication so far that the signs of mounting inflation evident in business surveys and... 13th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Mar.) Commercial real estate debt fell for the second consecutive month in March. That likely reflects weak investment activity due to virus restrictions. But, as constraints continue to ease and investment... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Record low inventory brings sales back to earth Mortgage rates rose further in March, with the 30-year rate now up 50bps compared to the start of the year. Recent stability in the 10-year Treasury yield means mortgage rates are likely to move... 9th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Biden’s tax reforms: further fuel for the rotation trade? If enacted, President Joe Biden’s corporate tax reforms could become a significant drag on US equities and hit the earnings of technology, pharmaceuticals and biotech companies particularly hard... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly The long, winding road to an infrastructure deal The news that a new interpretation of Senate rules would allow Democrats to pass a second reconciliation bill this fiscal year has the potential to be a gamechanger, but we expect moderate Senate... 9th April 2021 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) Employment growth in the three-months to February was heavily influenced by the rate of virus cases and consequent restrictions in place. And office-based jobs growth is still strongest in mid-sized... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks continued to fall in the latest weekly data, but this was a reflection of lower supply and higher exports than a recovery in consumer demand. However, all the signs point to... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The widening in the trade deficit to $71.1bn in February, from $67.8bn, came as trade in both directions was hit by the severe winter weather. Import growth is on course to outpace exports again in... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Home purchase mortgage applications edged out a small gain in March but, even as the economy reopens, we doubt that is a sign that home demand will see additional gains this year. Record low inventory... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
