US Economics Update Biden plan points to limited further fiscal expansion The $1.8trn in spending and tax credits in the American Families Plan would provide a relatively small boost to GDP growth as, like the earlier infrastructure proposals, it would be mostly paid for... 28th April 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb.) House prices continued to climb in February, with Case-Shiller and the FHFA both reporting growth of around 12% y/y. But while annual growth rates are at record highs on the FHFA measure, month-on... 27th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2021) All-property total returns rose again in Q1, driven by improvements in all sectors, although retail and hotel returns were again negative. But the industrial sector boom continued, with six-month... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The strong rebound in underlying durable goods orders in March, which partly reflects the unwinding of earlier weather-related disruption, indicates that business equipment investment has continued to... 26th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update TV and film to support LA office demand We expect a strong recovery in TV and film-related employment will support office demand in LA over the next five years. Alongside a relatively small development pipeline and low office rents, this... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) Following weather-related disruption in February, new home sales jumped in March to close to a 15-year high. A gradual rise in mortgage interest rates this year will weigh on demand to some extent... 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stimulus boosting prices as much as output This week brought further signs that the surge in demand is triggering much stronger price pressures. 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Tight inventory pushed existing home sales down to a seven-month low in March. Indeed, the number of homes for sale is at record lows and this will continue to constrain home sales this year. What’s... 22nd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude commercial stocks rose a touch last week, but we expect them to fall in the coming weeks as product demand picks up in tandem with the progressive easing of lockdowns. 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update High lumber costs won’t cut starts or boost prices Surging lumber prices have led to delays in housing starts and an increase in some new home prices. But, while we expect lumber prices to remain relatively high over the next couple of years, the... 21st April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Newfound optimism unlikely to change dovish stance We expect the statement following next week’s FOMC meeting to strike a more optimistic tone on the economic outlook, but Chair Jerome Powell is likely to emphasise in his press conference that any... 21st April 2021 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update D.C. service sector supports out-performance In our recent Office and Apartment Outlooks, we identified Washington D.C. as the top performer over a five-year forecast in both sectors. Those expectations are driven by several factors influencing... 20th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Higher mortgage rates to cool red hot housing market After a bumper second half of 2020, housing market activity will lose steam in 2021 as higher mortgage interest rates and record low inventory weigh on home sales. House price growth will also fall... 19th April 2021 · 17 mins read
US Chart Pack Supply struggling to keep up with red-hot demand The latest round of stimulus cheques and the easing of restrictions are driving a renewed resurgence in demand, with retail sales jumping by nearly 10% in March and the regional manufacturing surveys... 19th April 2021 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) Homebuilding recovered quickly from February’s adverse weather, with single-family starts rising to close to a 15-year high. If it were not for constraints on production, including soaring lumber... 16th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed standing back as economy shifts into higher gear The economic data released this week reinforce our view that the recent fiscal stimulus and continued lifting of virus restrictions will drive a marked acceleration in GDP growth this year, while also... 16th April 2021 · 4 mins read
