Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks plummeted last week primarily because net imports nosedived to a record low. While net imports will probably recover in the coming weeks as exports ease back, we think that crude... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Despite a small fall in mortgage interest rates, home purchase and refinance demand edged back in April. The reopening of the economy and easing credit conditions will provide some support for housing... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update How big a risk is the slowdown in vaccinations? The sharp drop in demand for vaccines in recent weeks is a risk to our assumption that the rollout reaches critical mass over the coming months. That could mean infections and hospitalisations remain... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Savings will support down payments and house prices Stimulus cheques and a lack of opportunity to spend money pushed the saving rate to a record high last year. Some of that saving made its way into down payments, with the average first-time buyer... 4th May 2021 · 14 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar) Although both exports and imports rebounded strongly in March, the former are still 5% below pre-pandemic levels whereas the latter are about 8% higher. As virus restrictions in other advanced... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Loosening credit standards will support activity The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that lending standards are being eased across the board, which will help keep consumption and investment growth solid even as support from fiscal... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The drop back in the ISM manufacturing index, to 60.7 in April from 64.7, appears to reflect intense and widespread supply constraints rather than a moderation in demand, a view which is underlined by... 3rd May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic take-off already underway President Joe Biden’s Families Plan wouldn’t provide much of an additional boost, but the stimulus already in place should ensure that the economic recovery goes from strength to strength, with the... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to accelerate further The easing of restrictions and the boost from stimulus cheques are why we estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a massive 1,200,000 in April, up from 916,000 the month before. 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) Weakness in office and retail occupier demand weighed heavily on market sentiment in Q1. Commercial property agents are therefore downbeat about rental and capital values in these sectors over the... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) Buoyed by the two rounds of stimulus cheques sent out in the first three months of the year, first-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 6.4% annualised, driven by a massive 10.7% surge in consumption... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed remains dovish despite strength of recovery Although it took a more upbeat tone on the economic outlook and acknowledged that inflation has risen in its statement released after today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed offered no hints that it was... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Mar.) Employment growth in the three-months to March was positive in almost all metros, but those in southern states tended to be the better performers. With Miami’s hospitality sector performing... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude commercial stocks stabilised last week, but we think they will resume their decline before long as product demand benefits from the easing of virus-related restrictions. 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Another look at the valuation of the US stock market Although the valuation of the US stock market is now approaching its peak during the dot com bubble, we doubt that it will reach such giddy heights. This reflects our forecast for a renewed rise in... 28th April 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surging house prices not bringing vacants to market There were 1.14m vacant homes not being used for any purpose in the first quarter, enough to double the inventory of existing homes for sale. Record low interest rates and the prospect of further... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
