Asset Allocation Update We doubt the 10Y UST/Bund spread will keep shrinking Although the spread between 10-year sovereign bond yields in the US and Germany has narrowed so far during the second quarter of this year, we doubt this will continue for much longer. 19th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro-zone see a US-style jump in inflation? Euro-zone inflation is likely to keep increasing as the economy re-opens, but we doubt it will rise as high as in the US. That’s because base effects will be smaller and the rebound in consumer... 19th May 2021 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Supply shortages getting worse The strength of demand coupled with supply constraints have made shortages of many goods even worse, with the inventory to sales ratio falling to a record low in March. The surge in job openings and... 18th May 2021 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Single-family starts dropped back in April and continue to underperform building permits. This adds to the evidence that high lumber and other material prices are constraining housing starts. But... 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Outstanding commercial real estate debt nudged higher in April. And with the vaccine rollout allowing more of the economy to reopen and lending standards set to loosen, we expect to see further gains... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Increased demand for larger apartments to persist Increased demand for larger apartments to accommodate working from home is already evident in NYC, where the inventory of units with two or more bedrooms has seen a sharper decline compared to smaller... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The unchanged reading for retail sales in April is slightly stronger than it looks given that it follows an upwardly revised 10.7% m/m surge in March, and it suggests that the boost from the $1,400... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Apartments starting to recover; offices deteriorating The economic recovery looks well-set, which should support occupier markets. However, structural change in the office sector means that occupier demand continues to fall, even while the beleaguered... 13th May 2021 · 13 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Worsening affordability hits home buying sentiment Mortgage rates have edged down since the end of March, but that didn’t prevent a fall in the share of households who see now as a good time to buy a home to a record low in April. House price growth... 12th May 2021 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.9% surge in core prices last month, the biggest monthly gain since April 1982, was concentrated in sectors that are reopening and/or facing intense supply shortages, which should eventually ease... 12th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages intensifying The NFIB and JOLT surveys published today add to evidence from the April employment report that labour shortages are widespread, pushing up prices and potentially acting as a brake on the recovery. 11th May 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Fed and the frog Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen set the cat among the pigeons this week when she remarked in an interview “it may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn... 7th May 2021 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Is there scope for office to residential conversions? There currently appears to be little economic scope for conversions to residential across the six major office markets. But our forecasts of falling values and rising vacancy in the office sector... 7th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The more muted 266,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is a clear disappointment but, with much of the high-frequency data – including jobless claims – still improving rapidly, we doubt it... 7th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus Coming surge in core inflation to be sustained Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolute in his belief that the burst of stronger inflation we are about to see will prove temporary, with underlying inflation dropping back to the 2% target next year. We... 6th May 2021 · 25 mins read
