Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s decline in US crude stocks adds to evidence that the oil market is getting tighter. This supports our view that oil prices have further to rise in the months ahead, before higher OPEC+... 26th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Growth in the key monetary aggregates and bank lending has turned up over recent months, driven in part by the Fed’s continued asset purchases. 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think the euro’s recent strength will prove to be transitory While recent strong data confirm that the economic recovery in the eurozone is underway, we continue to think the euro will weaken against the US dollar this year. 25th May 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Mar./Apr.) House price growth accelerated in March, reaching a record high of 13.9% y/y on the FHFA measure. But there are signs that the boom in prices is now weighing on housing demand and activity. New home... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: supply is struggling to keep up with demand The flash PMIs for May suggest that the recovery is well underway in those economies that are now on top of the virus. However, supply is still struggling to keep up with surging demand. And as well... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales recorded another decline in April and are down 13% from the peak last October. Home sales are being constrained by record low inventory, which will continue to weigh on housing... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Rising Treasury yields to squeeze valuations further Following a sharp increase in Treasury yields, property valuations worsened for the second consecutive quarter in Q1. And we expect 10-Yr Treasury yields to resume their upward trend to reach 2.25% by... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed remaining dovish as supply-side constraints mount In a relatively quiet week, the few data releases we did get added to signs that shortages are pushing up prices further and restraining the pace of economic recovery. 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect recent strength in the South African rand to reverse Despite its recent appreciation against the US dollar, we expect the South African rand – like most emerging market (EM) currencies – to end this year weaker against the greenback. 20th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update US pay pressures are the exception, not the norm While pay growth has risen across the developed economies, in several cases this reflects reduced hours or the fact that a disproportionate number of low paid workers have lost their jobs. There are... 20th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to disregard US dollar strength The recent depreciation in the US dollar has helped to boost commodity prices. But while we expect a stronger dollar to weigh on most commodity prices later this year, we think that oil prices will... 20th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2021) Consensus forecasts for the next two years have been revised upwards, largely driven by a more upbeat view on the industrial sector. As a result, we are now more downbeat than the survey respondents... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we still favour the US dollar over the euro Despite its recent resurgence, we continue to think that the euro will weaken against the dollar this year. 19th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks increased last week as inventories continue to be drawn down from the US government’s strategic reserves. We expect commercial crude stocks to rise further next week as... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Outlook bright for home improvement spending Booming home sales, record low inventory, the shift to working from home and a surge in savings have all helped boost home improvement spending over the past three quarters. While home sales are set... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation and long-term US Treasury yields We expect long-term Treasury yields to rise more decisively before long, driven by long-term real yields. 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
