Energy Chart Pack Prices to be falling by end-year Cold weather in parts of the northern hemisphere helped push up the prices of coal and natural gas last month, while oil prices also rose. We still think that average energy prices will be higher this... 2nd June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Apr.) Employment growth in the three-months to April was positive in all 30 of the largest metros. However, the rate of growth remains slow as labour shortages weigh on the jobs recovery. As a result, total... 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May.) Home purchase mortgage demand continued its downward trend in May and is now broadly in line with its pre-virus level. Easing credit conditions and the reopening of the economy will provide some... 2nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s strength to last While the renminbi has appreciated recently – to the point that policymakers have stepped in to slow its rise – we continue to think that it will end the year weaker against the US dollar. 1st June 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices will avoid a dangerous bubble House price expectations have taken off since the start of the year, and that raises the risk of a self-reinforcing bubble forming. However, there are no signs that lenders are rapidly loosening... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) While the headline ISM manufacturing index edged up to 61.2 in May, from 60.7, the main takeaway from the release was that shortages of workers, and not just raw materials, now appear to be playing a... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Austin and Seattle set to slide down the office rankings Although office values have held up well in tech hubs such as Seattle and Austin, they have also seen some of the largest falls in occupier demand. Further substantial reductions in floorspace by tech... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Surging prices begin to weigh on confidence Negotiations over a bipartisan compromise on infrastructure spending continued this week, but the Republicans and Democrats are still so far apart in their offers that it is only a matter of time... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Will vaccine hesitancy prevent economies reopening? 28th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour shortages may take some time to clear With labour shortages weighing on hiring there is even more uncertainty than usual over May’s employment report, but we estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a relatively subdued 500,000. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 1.3% m/m decline in durable goods orders in April partly reflected the impact of semiconductor shortages in the automobile sector, with motor vehicle orders falling by 6.2% m/m last month... 27th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings expectations and the outlook for the S&P 500 We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains over the next few years. But we think some sectors – such as financials – will continue to do better than the index as a whole. 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will expensive home sales keep booming? Sales of expensive homes have done particularly well over the past year, with the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 surging from 15% a year ago to a record high 26% in April. An extreme... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Calling time on the rally in US steel prices Limited domestic supply, expensive imports and strong growth in demand have fuelled the rally in US steel prices. But with supply set to improve, at a time of softer growth in demand, prices should... 26th May 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How far could industrial yields fall? Industrial yields look likely to reach our end-2021 forecasts by mid-year, leading us to re-evaluate the outlook for pricing. Although gains in rents and capital values are driving increased... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
